For the last couple of months, THR hotshot columnist Scott Feinberg has been insisting that Tim Fehlbaum‘s September 5 (Paramount, 11.29) is the Best Picture contender to beat…a claim that has triggered quizzical responses here and there.

I’ve never thrown the least amount of shade at September 5 — it’s a reasonably sturdy, more-than-moderately-engaging TV journalism film — I just don’t share Scott’s conviction that it’s a Best Picture Oscar winner waiting to hqppen….it’s good but not holy-shit, cartwheels-in-the-lobby good.

Last night an industry friendo saw September 5 on the Paramount lot (thumbs up), and during the lavish post-screening reception he spoke to Fehlbaum, who directed and co-wrote the script with Moritz Binder and Alex David.

Friendo: “Fehlbaum said that Paramount only started to take the film seriously AFTER Scott Feinberg’s raves. He said ‘I would not be here were it not for the Hollywood Reporter declaring the film as their top contender’…the gist being that “once the Feinberg prediction came out it seemed that suddenly Paramount mounted a campaign.”

“Nonetheless there was a poor turnout of Academy members at the half-full screening and reception,” friendo goes on.  “A huge number of vacant seats for the film, which has to battle the Gaza of it all. And needs much more careful handling than Paramount has given it thus far.

“The friends I invited as my plus-one all said they’d never heard of the film. Paramount needs to quickly up their game.”

What filmmakers have declared that support from this or that Oscar-season handicapper was an important or crucial factor in their award-season strategies? It happens from time to time but not routinely.

I think some bought into the idea that my praise for Errol Morris‘s The Fog of War (‘03) made a slight positive difference. A decade ago I was told by a colleague of Russian producer Alexander Rodnyansky that he felt that my excitement over Andrey Zvyagintsev‘s Leviathan was influential within the industry. I know that after I did somersaults over Alfonso Cuaron‘s Children of Men (’06), I suddenly seemed to become one of Alfonso’s journo bruhs. I know that several weeks after I raved about Carey Mulligan‘s career-making performance in An Education after the film’s Sundance ’09 debut, she sent me a hand-written, snail-mail “thank you” note.