Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, one of the more savvy Academy pulse-takers, is now predicting via Gold Derby that Amour‘s Emanuelle Riva will nudge out Silver Linings Playbook‘s Jennifer Lawrence for the Best Actress Oscar. Because of Riva’s BAFTA win? I would be flabbergasted if this happened. Hammond is also going for SLP‘s Robert De Niro in the Best Supporting Actor race and…Ang Lee for Best Director? What kind of divining stick is Hammond using?

Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil is sticking with Lawrence, but has decided to abandon Lincoln‘s Tommy Lee Jones (his previous Best Supporting Actor pick) for Django Unchained‘s Christoph Waltz. Nope. Waltz has had his moment in the sun. DeNiro has been surging, and I think he’s somewhere between a safe and a very safe bet at this stage.

O’Neil wants me to update my predictions. Okay, but on the plane. I’m writing this from the LAX Virgin America departure area. My JFK flight leaves at 10:40 am.