Postscript to yesterday’s riff about Pete Hammond‘s what-about-Zodiac? piece: a certain know-it-all is saying there’s no way Paramount is going to platform-release David Fincher‘s drama in late December in New York and Los Angeles because they don’t want anything else in the soup that might dilute their efforts, even a little bit, to get World Trade Center a Best Picture nomination.
The likelihood of this happening is just about zilch — ask anyone, it’s not in the cards — but WTC is the only pure-Paramount, pure-Brad Grey, pure-Gail Berman contender and apparently it’s a point of pride. Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls are, first and foremost, DreamWorks productions, and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu‘s Babel isn’t pure-Paramount either but Paramount Vantage.
Zodiac, a deep-dish procedural about the hunt for a serial killer in the late ’60s and early ’70s, is not the sort of film that tends to attract Best Picture talk, but it might be good enough to wind up on some ten-best lists, and there’s a chance that this or that element (Robert Downey‘s supporting performance is said to be special) could be saluted by this or that group. But Paramount doesn’t want it released before 12.31.06, this guy is saying, because of a Quixotic dream that World Trade Center might lasso a Best Picture nomination.
How titanically lame is that?
The brilliant David Poland has written on his Hot Blog that “Paramount will NOT release Fincher’s Zodiac for Oscar contention this year. I would bet much on this. They not only have too many awards movies already, but World Trade Center has been given high priority, while Dreamgirls and Flags are expected to make their own gravy, the charge being led by Terry Press. There is less than 1 percent chance that Paramount would ever risk WTC for the sake of Zodiac. I know it gives bored people something to talk about, but it ain’t happening.” Listen to the tone in his words. Poland is smugly satisfied and content that a David Fincher movie is, he believes, going to be kept out of the 2006 Derby for the sake of Oliver Stone’s not-bad 9.11 movie. This news actually PLEASES him. What the…?
Pete Hammond jumps into the will- Paramount-give- Zodiac-a-platform-opening-in-late-December story in his latest Hollywood Wiretap column, which is basically about how end-of-the-year crowding has left the studios with an embarassment of riches. But before exploring the Zodiac particulars, I have a suggestion.
Paramount is apparently still on the fence (i.e., reluctant but unwilling to give this reluctance a full voice) about opening David Fincher‘s allegedly top-drawer policier in New York and L.A. on or before before 12.31.06. (The studio intends to release it wide on 1.17.07.) I’ve written two or three articles pushing for this, but I’ve only read an early version of the script. Since Fincher is now, according to Hammond, “completing editing and mixing and the film should be pretty much wrapped in a couple of weeks,” he and his producers should simply arrange for a quiet little columnists-and-critics screening of Zodiac so certain parties can see it and respond first-hand.
Zodiac may not be all it’s cracked up to be, in which case nobody has to write anything one way or the other and Paramount and the Zodiac team can duke it out between themselves. But if it’s an exceptional wow, which I’ve been told by certain parties, then certain columnists and critics could conceivably proclaim this and the Zodiac team would have a stronger case to make to the Paramount foot-draggers.
“Sources are saying it is brilliantly made with great performances across the board,” writes Hammond. “The cast includes Jake Gyllenhaal, Robert Downey Jr., Mark Ruffalo and Anthony Edwards. And even though Fincher’s hard edged previous films (Fight Club, Panic Room, Se7en) have received a grand total of 2 Academy nods in tech categories, this is said to be the one that could change that pattern.
“That is, if Zodiac receives a qualifying run in December ahead of its wide January release. If it has to wait until next year, the odds are long [for ’07 Oscars] since January films are a distant memory come nomination time. But hope remains that Fincher’s film will still be a part of this year’s kudos story. We’ve been told that it’s a complex situation and there are ‘discussions that are probably going to take place.’
“One hurdle may be that Paramount really doesn’t need another picture going for the gold this year since they already have World Trade Center and the upcoming Dreamworks’films Flags Of Our Fathers (10.20) and Dreamgirls (12.21). And although it is a completely separate entity, specialty division Paramount Vantage has a major contender in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu‘s Babel (10.27).
“But if Zodiac really does deliver the goods (as those few who have seen it believe), then how can it be denied a passport to the Kodak? After all, remember 1974. One studio accounted for three, count `em , three of the five Best Picture Oscar nominations. The movies were The Godfather Part II , Chinatown and The Conversation. The studio was, you guessed it, Paramount.”
Bottom line: if Zodiac is the goodie its supporters say it is, there is no downside — zip, nada, none — to giving it a platform debut in four or six theatres in N.Y. and L.A. in late December. Paramount can’t lose, especially given the apparent likelihood that Zodiac will need some kind of big advance sell since it’s fairly long (about three hours) and doesn’t end its hunt-for-a-serial-killer plot with a conventional finale.
Okay — I blew my Toronto Film Festival experience by not seeing Borat. If there’s a consensus among the various columnists, it’s that more people connected in a dynamic, jolting, oh-my-gosh way with Sacha Baron Cohen‘s deranged put-on comedy (20th Century Fox, 11.3) than with any other Toronto Film Festival attraction. Fine… whatever. It guess it’s something to look forward to seeing when I get back to L.A.
Toronto is the festival that presides over the death and downgrading of imperfect films. All The King’s Men died here. Bobby was all but pummelled to death. Stranger than Fiction pretty much died. For Your Consideration, Infamous and The Fountain (a film I really and truly liked) all died here. Breaking and Entering found respect and muted enthusiasm, but that’s all.
Babel and Volver solidifed their already commanding positions. Venus did fairly well, but Peter O’Toole did better. Catch a Fire tried for traction and found some, but I’m not sure if it was enough. Little Children did moderately well, although it became clear that some had recoiled due to the second-act “ick” factor. And Guillermo del Toro‘s Pan’s Labyrinth gained.
My biggest Toronto favorite (apart from the films I loved but had already seen in Cannes) was Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck‘s The Lives of Others. And I’m hugely pissed that I couldn’t manage to see Paul Verhoeven‘s Black Book his return to Dutch filmmaking by way of a World War II melodrama, as well as Patrice Leconte‘s My Best Friend, which Variety‘s Robert Koehler brought to my attention two or three days ago. I nodded and said thanks and wrote a note to myself…and didn’t see it.
The Last King of Scotland didn’t ignite, but Forrest Whittaker‘s performance as Idi Amin did…sort of. Penelope Cruz has played the role of her life in Volver, and to my mind she became an all-but-certain Best Actress nominee out of her TIFF exposure. Kate Winslet caught a Best Actress wave with her Little Children performance, and costars Patrick Wilson and Jackie Earl Haley popped through in more general terms.
I’l try and add to this piece later on, as well as get into the mezzo-mezzo’s that I didn’t feel very much about one way or the other.
As Oscar contender piece by Pete Hammond turned up on Hollywood Wiretap yesterday. I heard a couple of days ago that Hammond has been talking to somebody about writiing a running Oscar blog thing, so maybe this is the berth.
Reading it led me to a familiar conclusion, which is that the four most likely Best Picture nominees at this stage are still Clint Eastwood‘s Flags of Our Fathers (pure mystique…nobody has seen anything), Pedro Almodovar‘s Volver (probably his finest flm ever, and one of the best chick flicks of all time with a serious chance of being included — maybe — among the mainsream Best Pic contenders), Bill Condon‘s Dreamgirls (so far only extended product reels have been seen), and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu‘s Babel with the fifth slot up for grabs.
The intrepid Little Miss Sunshine could work its way in there; ditto World Trade Center, although I’m doubting this more and more. What indisputably strong and accomplished film especially deserves to take the fifth slot? Paul Greengrass‘s United 93.
If there wasn’t such an ingrained Best Picture prejudice against films in the cinefantastique realm, Guillermo del Toro‘s Pan’s Labyrinth would be at least be considered worthy of end-of-the-year distinctions. It is without question del Toro’s finest film to date — a dark political melodrama and a serenely tender child’s fable in a single package.
My gut says don’t hold your breath waiting for derby action on The History Boys. Something’s not quite happening with this film — I can just feel it with my insect antennae.
Gabrielle Muccino‘s The Pursuit Of Happyness won’t pop through for another couple of months, and the less said the better until it does. Ditto Christopher Nolan‘s The Prestige .
Some other HE conclusions based on portions of Pete’s piece: (a) All The King’s Men is dead (in my estimation this Steve Zallian period drama has been over for months — the disastrous Toronto Film Festival reception was just the official confirmation); (b) the Running With Scissors strategy of skipping the early festivals is indicative of…uhm, something; (c) Little Children is a fine film and a major creative surge by director-cowriter Todd Fields, but it has an ick-factor thing to contend with; (d) The Last King Of Scotland is a respectably crafted real-life drama (no more that that) but it also has a great Forrest Whitaker performance as General Idi Amin; (e) due respect to tjhe illustrious David Thomson, but Infamous is nowhere near as cultured or artful as Bennett Miller ‘s Capote and is basically dead in the derby; and (f) the lead performance by Derek Luke in Catch A Fire is tender and affecting, but I don’t know if the flm will launch him or not.
And what else? Breaking and Entering is mostly middling Minghella — soulful and smartly assembled in many ways, but curiously plotted in terms of the infidelity activity between Jude Law and Juliette Binoche; Peter O’Toole‘s performance as an aging actor with a wink in his eye is Venus‘s ace in the hole; Stephen Frears‘ The Queen is…I’m not going to share just yet, but Helen Mirren‘s performance as Queen Elizabeth II is a near-lock for Best Actress; and the derision that greeted Emilio Estevez‘s Bobby in Toronto (the “Love Boat” label is going to stick) has begun to turn the film into a Jay Leno joke.
I wrote last week that Stranger Than Fiction is dead in the derby, and take no notice of anyone who says it isn’t.
Films yet to be seen and handicapped are Martin Scorsese‘s recently rebounded The Departed, Steven Soderbergh’s The Good German and Ed Zwick‘s Blood Diamond. Clouds of doubt are hovering over Alfonso Cuaron‘s Children Of Me and Robert DeNiro‘s The Good Shepherd.
Ridley Scott‘s A Good Life is agreeably escapist and goes down easy, but the bottom-line distinction is that it’s formulaic (as in predictable). Agreeably so, but formulaic nonetheless.
Hollywood Reporter columnist Anne Thompson on the three amigos — directors Guillermo del Toro (Pan’s Labyrinth) Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Babel) and Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men) — who huddle, collaborate, advise each other on creative matters, and generally watch each other’s back.
Let’s call this one Anonymous Telluride Guys Tells All:
“First off, you’re right and whoever else you’re hearing from is wrong about The U.S. vs. John Lennon. I saw it ahead of the festival so I didn’t witness the supposed ‘rapturous’ response. But this is a deifying, talking-heads TV special piece of crap. And I say that as one of the biggest Beatlemaniacs you’ll ever meet; unfortunately, I’m also a fan of real documentary filmmaking, which this is not.
“David Poland‘s high opinion of Little Children seems to be shared by no one here. I liked it more than anyone else I’ve talked to in line, and I wasn’t over the moon about it. There’s a lot to admire about it, and I think it will work for a lot of audiences and critics. But it’s also very slick and overly schematic.
“If Poland thinks ‘there’s not a wrong shot in the movie’, I would start with the one in which the indecent-exposure guy, whom all the parents are afraid of, gets into the pool and all the parents grab their kids and jump out like it’s Jaws, and then they stand around the edge with their children staring at him in silence. This is such a not-real-world moment that it really throws off the movie. And there are more such moments where stylization trumps suburban realism.
“But there are some great performances in it. Does it have a shot at a Best Picture nomination? Maybe, in a weak year. But after hearing a lot of negativity about it from average viewers, I’m thinking my positive-but-ambivalent take may be in the minority…much less Poland’s over-the-moon reaction.
“I loved Severance. There was a wee, wee feeling of letdown at the end, partly because of the buildup about the film and partly because the ending really isn’t as good as it needs to be. But it’s such good fun, with many, many laugh-out-loud moments. If ‘horror comedy’ doesn’t work at the box-office, as we keep being told, this probably won’t be any different, but it will definitely be a critical hit (not with everyone, obviously) and find an appreciative cult. You can still look forward to it at Toronto, whatever naysaying you may have heard.
“I went to Catch a Fire because of your recommendation after the rough cut, but I really wish I’d spent those two hours seeing something else I’ll end up missing. Seems churlish to knock it, but it felt like a poof to me.
“Fur…where would I begin? Will have to save that for another message, if you’re interested. It’s probably the film I’ve liked the least here so far (not counting the Lennon film), but being such a bizarre take, I wouldn’t have missed it for the world. Since it has next to nothing to do with the actual life of Diane Arbus, it will make many, if not most, fans of hers very angry. But there’s something about Robert Downey being covered head-to-toe in hair that somehow works…up to a point.
“Just saw Ghosts of Cite Soleil, the documentary about Haiti — great. The Italian is terrific, though the ending seemed like a cop-out. Babel is great also, but another weak ending (for me) after a 142-minute investment.”
“Great buzz on Venus and The Last King of Scotland, or at least the lead performances. I liked Volver, but reactions are mixed. I’m hearing nothing but loathing for Day Night Day Night , but maybe I’m not talking to the artsier crowd here. Up next for me: Venus and Infamous.”
Editor’s addendum: Sorry, but I have to interject here — the ending of Babel is, for me, just-right beautiful…a nice clean pocket drop that “says” the right thing in precisely the right way, by which I mean softly and tenderly.
From: Jeffrey Wells, Hollywood Elsewhere. To: Dreamamount publicity/ marketing. Re: An open letter about the selling of David Fincher‘s Zodiac (currently set for release on 1.19.07).
Greetings and salutations, guys: I’m writing to ask what the upside is in not platform-releasing Zodiac at the end of December, which is what certain Dreamamount parties are apparently against at this stage. A late December release, obviously, will put Zodiac into the derby and make it eligible for whatever possible critic awards and or Academy nominations that may result. This, obviously, would fortify the 1.19 general release to some extent.
Not putting Zodiac out as an ’06 platform end-of-December release strikes me as nonsensical, certainly from the standpoint of Zodiac‘s admirers or from the stand- point of any kind of opportunistic, fair-shake approach to creative marketing. Very clearly, going out cold on 1.19 without the buildup of a December platform opening isn’t going to help.
Zodiac is, I’m hearing, a serious quality-level piece. It’s also a longish cerebral procedural, a ’70s period drama, a non-conventional cop thriller. It needs some media massaging to help prime the pump.
The word around town is that there are two reasons that certain parties with Dreamamount may be against the platform-release idea:
(a) Dreamamount will have four films in Oscar contention by the end of the year (Flags of Our Fathers, Dreamgirls, Babel, World Trade Center) and some p.r. and marketing people think that a fifth film in the hopeful-Oscar-pipeline will strain the resources of Dreamamount marketing/publicity and cause this or that film to receive less of an Oscar push effort in terms of manpower and/or ad dollars, and…
(b) DreamWorks honcho David Geffen wants an all-out, balls-to-the-wall Oscar push for Dreamgirls, which is his personal baby, and he doesn’t want to hear about a fifth film potentially sapping the energy or marketing budgets allocated for Dreamgirls push.
What does Paramount/DreamWorks think about all this? What do readers think? Is there merit to the David Geffen theory? This issue has been festering for a long while and I’d like to get some reactions from all corners.
In an article running today, L.A. Times guy John Horn has listed four likely Telluride Film Festival selections that I haven’t yet posted, to wit:
(a) Adrienne Shelly‘s Waitress , with Kerri Russell as a pregnant, unhappily married waitress in the deep south who falls into an affair with a visitor as an attempt to get out of her situation and redefine her life; (b) Susanne Bier‘s After the Wedding (sure to be strong and absorbing in the vein of Bier’s Brothers and Open Hearts); (c) Florian Henckel-Donnersmarck‘s The Life of Others, said to be “a black comedy about spying in 1980s East Germany”, and (d) Louise Osmond‘s Deep Water,a documentary about a catastrophic sailing race in 1968.
Horn’s other Telluride calls are Infamous (seen it), Fur (said to be a bit too arty for its own good), Babel (great), The Last King of Scotland (featuring Forrest Whitaker performance as General Idi Amin), Roger Michell‘s Venus, Asger Leth and Milos Loncarevic‘s Ghosts of Cite Soleil , and Christopher Smith‘s Severance.
A persuasive argument piece by MSNBC’s Sarah Bunting that Steve Carell deserves a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his work in Little Miss Sunshine…hail to that. (He and Alan Arkin have been topping the list of Best Supporting Actor possibles in the Oscar Balloon since last spring.)
But the thing you really want to look at on the same page is that MSNBC slide show of Oscar bait movies …hah! The banner copy says that “Martin Scorsese‘s The Departed will take on Clint Eastwood‘s Flags of Our Fathers“…hah!! (Which is the reason why Warner Bros. isn’t bringing The Departed to Toronto — because it’s such a tangy Oscar contender.)
Of the eleven films listed by MSNBC as likely Oscar bait, exactly four are rock-solid contenders for Best Picture or Screenplay or some level of acting award — Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu‘s Babel, Todd Field’s Little Children, Flags of Our Fathers and Pedro Almodovar‘s Volver.
And there are two likely-possibles as far as the acting categories are concerned — Phillip Noyce ‘s Catch a Fire (i.e., Derek Luke as a Best Actor contender…maybe) and Ryan Murphy‘s Running with Scissors (i.e., a possible Best Supporting Actress nod for Annette Bening).
The list also includes Chris Nolan‘s The Prestige but my gut tells me this is more in the realm of an entertainment than Oscar glory…but maybe not. (Disney publicists are convinced it’s their ’06 Oscar missile.)
Anything’s possible, but I will eat both of my loafers if any of the following four films, listed as hotties by MSNBC, significantly distinguish themselves in the derby: Ridley Scott‘s A Good Year, Steven Zallian’s All The King’s Men, Brian DePalma’s The Black Dahlia and The Departed.
Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett will be in Toronto to flog the TIFF showings of Alejando Gonzalez Innaritu’s Babel (Paramount Vantage, 10.27), as will Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott for the screenings of A Good Year (20th Century Fox, 11.10). And a publicist friend called today about setting up an interview with a client.
But nothing can be scheduled, of course, because the Toronto Film Festival hasn’t made the schedules of press and public screenings available.
Remember that exchange from Beat the Devil when the ship’s captain announces that an engine part has cracked and the ship can’t leave port until a replacement arrives. “Now see here,” says an irate English passenger. “This vessel is schedued, most definitely scheduled, to leave port at midnight tonight.” And the captain says, “Scheduled, sir, but not, I fear, destined to do so.” (Dialogue by Truman Capote.)
Toronto Finals
The final tally of Toronto Film Festival titles has been released, and along with that comes HE’s initial checklist (must-sees, should-sees). This usually includes about 50 or 55 films, which always has to be whittled down to a more realistic 25 or 30.
My first run-through has resulted in 49 titles, give or take. I’m posting this list in hopes of hearing from the usual know-it-alls in hopes of pruning it down or getting wise to films that aren’t on my list but should be.
Abbie Cornish, Heath Ledger in Neil Armfield’s’s Candy (ThinkFilm, 11.17.)
The only high profile head-turner in this morning’s official list is the inclusion of Ridley Scott‘s A Good Year (20th Century Fox, 11.10). For whatever reason I hadn’t heard this was definitely going there.
Here are most of the categories reprinted with HE’s priority titles in boldface (and the ones I’m already seen in bold italic). If anyone knows anything good, hard and solid about any films I haven’t boldfaced — positive or negative — please advise and I’ll work them into the schedule. Obviously I don’t need to see the italicized bold titles again and there are all kinds of additions to come, and I can keep updating and modifying as I go along:
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The only high profile head-turner in this morning’s official list is the inclusion of Ridley Scott‘s A Good Year (20th Century Fox, 11.10). For whatever reason I hadn’t heard this was definitely going to be up there.
Here are most of the categories reprinted with my priority titles in boldface (and the ones I’m already seen in bold italic). If anyone knows anything good, hard and solid about any films I haven’t boldfaced — positive or negative — please advise and I’ll work them into the schedule. Obviously I don’t need to see the italicized bold titles again and there are all kinds of additions to come, and I can keep updating and modifying as I go along:
Russell Crowe in Ridley Scott’s A Good Year (20th Century Fox, 11.10)
Opening night gala: The Journals of Knud Rasmussen. Closing night gala: Amazing Grace.
Gala Presentations (10): After the Wedding, All The King’s Men, Away From Her, Babel, Banquet, Black Book, Bobby, Bonneville, Breaking and Entering, Dixie Chicks — Shut Up and Sing, For Your Consideration, A Good Year, Infamous, Mon Meilleur Ami, Never Say Goodbye, Penelope, Volver.
Special Presentations (13): 10 Items or Less, A Chairy Tale, Alatriste, Begone Dull Care, Blinkity Blank, Brand upon the Brain!, Bubble, Cantante, Catch a Fire, Congorama, Crime, Dog Problem, Exiled, Fall, Fay Grim, The Fountain, Golden Door, HANA, Hen Hop, Homme de sa Vie, Horizontal Lines, Jindabyne, Kabul Express, Last King of Scotland, The Last Kiss, Little Children, Lives of Others, Love and Other Disasters, The Magic Flute (ought to see it, don’t want to).
Plus: Manufactured Landscapes, Merle, Mon Colonel, Namesake, Neighbours, Nue Propriete, Opening Speech, Pan’s Labyrinth, Paris, Je T’aime, Pas de Deux, Pleasure of Your Company, Post-Modern Life of My Aunt, Quelques Jours en Septembre, Seraphim Falls, Snow Cake, Stars and Stripes, Stranger than Fiction, Synchromy, This Is England, Venus, Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show: 30 Days & 30 Nights, Woman on the Beach.
Jude Law, Juliette Binoche in Anthony Minghella’s Breaking and Entering (Weinstein Co., December…maybe)
Contemporary World Cinema (6): 12:08 East of Bucharest, Abeni, Antonia, Beauty in Trouble, Bella, Bet Collector, Born and Bred, Bothersome Man, Candy, Chronicle of an Escaped Citizen Duane, Confetti, Copying Beethoven, Diggers, Dimanche √É∆í√Ǭ† Kigali, Dog Pound, Falling, A Few Days Later…, Fiction, Four Minutes, Grbavica, Hula Girls, Indigenes, Italian, Last Winter, Mainline, Monkey Warfare, Nouvelle Chance, Offside, Outsourced, Palimpsest, Prague, Rain Dogs, Red Road, Requiem, Retrieval, Silence, Sleeping Dogs, Slumming, Starter For Ten, Suely in the Sky, Summer ’04, Summer Palace, Sweet MudTimes and Winds, To Get to Heaven First You Have to Die, Tourneuse de Pages, Twilight Dancers, Unnatural and Accidental, Violin, Waiter, Wake, The Way I Spent the End of the World, White Palms, Winter Journey.
Discovery (0): 7 ans, Art of Crying, As the Shadow, Bliss, Cashback, DarkBlueAlmostBlack, Falkenberg Farewell, Family Ties, Glue, Grave-Keeper’s Tale, Griffin & Phoenix, King and the Clown, Out of the Blue, Reprise, Silly Age, Thicker than Water, True North, Vanaja.
Dustin Hoffman, Will Ferrell in Marc Forster’s Stranger Than Fiction (Columbia, 11.10)
Masters (3): Caiman, Coeurs, EMPz 4 Life, I Am the Other Woman, Untouchable, Lights in the Dusk, Missing Star, Optimists, Rescue Dawn, STRIKE, Voyage en Armenie, When The Levees Broke: A Requiem In Four Acts (seeing this on HBO), The Wind that Shakes the Barley.
Mavericks (2): “An Evening with Michael Moore“, “Making of a Bollywood Blockbuster: Karan Johar, Shah Rukh Khan, Rani Mukherji”, “Vanguard Cinema: John Waters in conversation with John Cameron Mitchell“.
Midnight Madness (3): Abandoned, All the Boys Love Mandy Lane, Black Sheep, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Host, Princess, Severance, Sheitan, Trapped Ashes.
Real to Reel (8): …So Goes the Nation, American Hardcore, Blindsight, Cry in the Dark, Deliver Us From Evil, Dong, Esprit des lieux, Ghosts of Cite Soleil, Iran: Une Revolution Cinematographique, Killer Within, Kurt Cobain About A Son, Lake of Fire, Made in Jamaica, My Life as a Terrorist: The Story of Hans-Joachim Klein, Office Tigers, Pervert’s Guide to Cinema, Primo Levi’s Journey, Prisoner or How I Planned to Kill Tony Blair, Radiant City, Remembering Arthur, Sari’s Mother, Session Is Open, Shame, Sharkwater, Shot in the Dark, Sugar Curtain, Summercamp!, Tales of the Rat Fink, Tanju Miah, These Girls, This Filthy World, Toi, Waguih, U.S. vs. John Lennon, Very Nice, Very Nice, Yokohama Mary.
Werner Herzog, Steve Zahn, Christian Bale during filming of Rescue Dawn (Weinstein Co.)
Vanguard (5): 2:37, Bunny Chow, Chacun sa nuit, Drama/Mex, Election, Election 2, Hottest State, Jade Warrior, Macbeth, Renaissance, Shortbus, Sleeping Dogs Lie, Suburban Mayhem.
Visions (1): August Days, Bamako, Belle toujours, Big Bang Love, Juvenile A, Blessed are the Dreams of Men, Book of Revelation, Bugmaster, Building a Broken Mousetrap, Cages, Climates, Colossal Youth, D.O.A.P., Dans les villes, Day Night Day Night, Day on Fire, Fantasma, Flandres, Gathering the Scattered Cousins, In Between Days, Invisible Waves, Island, Khadak, Kinshasa Palace, No Place Like Home, NYC Weights and Measures, Sistagod, Takva – A Man’s Fear of God, Taxidermia, Ten Canoes, Time, Zidane: Un Portait du XXIeme Si√É∆í√Ǭ®cle.
Summer Palace
Oscar Mashing at Paramount
Here it is not even Labor Day, and it’s looking more and more likely that the two strongest Best Picture contenders are going to be Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls, which in itself is going to make this a phenomenal Oscar campaign year for Paramount /DreamWorks (a.k.a. “Dreamamount”), which is distributing both.
Shot during the filming of Clint Eastwood’s Flags of Our Fathers (DreamWorks/Paramount, 10.20)
Keep in mind also that one other Paramount release — Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu‘s Babel (Paramount Vantage) — is also regarded as a probable awards- level thing. Not to mention the possibility of Paramount’s World Trade Center eeking into one of the five slots as a kind of sentimental favorite. Four Best Picture finalists from the same studio — it could happen.
But I’m all but convinced it’s going to come down to a Flags vs. Dreamgirls thing — a mano e mano on Melrose Ave. I’m saying this because of fresh perceptions of extremely strong emotional currents in both. And because, as one strategist notes, “there’s such a shallow pool of obvious [Best Picture] contenders from our current vantage point of mid-August.”
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Some surprise movie may come along in a month or two and rewrite the picture — “”it happens every year,” the strategist says — but right now no one can see what film that might be. And I spend every damn day trying to figure this stuff out.
How do I know it’ll be Dreamgirls vs. Flags of Our Fathers? I don’t as far as Flags is concerned, having only read the script and seen this morning’s Japanese combo trailer (i.e., Flags plus Letters from Iwo Jima).
But count on this : (a) the personal-anguish-of-soldiers factor, which Flags is full of top to bottom, is going to resonate to some extent (maybe a large extent) in the hinterlands among the support-our-troops-in-Iraq contingent, and (b) this big-scale tribute to the World War II generation is going to sink in big with boomer-aged Academy members.
I wouldn’t be saying this if Flags was just standing on its own — it could fade or come up short, you never know — but the Flags-plus-Letters from Iwo Jima factor (joined-at-the-hip movies using the same history and locale) is going to impress the hell out of Academy members for the same reason that actors who gain weight or put on fake noses or speak in exotic accents always tend to get Oscar-nomina- ted — because the effort that went into it is so obvious, and because no director has ever done something like this before.
And having seen portions of Bill Condon‘s knockout Dreamgirls again last night I’m dead certain it’s a Best Picture lock. Four scenes were shown, and each was emotional, exuberant, tight as a drum, perfectly staged and performed, and edited with the skill of a diamond-cutter.
And yet when you think about the Flags vs. Dreamgirls competish, it feels like a bit of a muddle because their Oscar campaigns are going to be run by two execs collecting Paramount paychecks — DreamWorks marketing executive Terry Press and Paramount marketing chief Gerry Rich — and who will have to split their loyalties and energies in two directions.
Flags and Dreamgirls originated as DreamWorks projects, of course, and Press is going to be handling the marketing for both, but she and Rich will be making the Oscar campaign moves — and this may look to some like an operation at cross purposes.
Press listened to my questions and declined official comment, but let’s look at this situation as best we can.
One, there’s a huge influx of Miramax and DreamWorks marketing veterans on the Paramount lot these days, and these people know their way around the Academy rodeo. Paramount is a studio, remember, that hasn’t been in a major Oscar campaign since Titanic, which was nine years ago.
Two, there’s no Paramount logo on the Flags of our Fathers one-sheet. Think about that.
And three, Warner Bros. is is the international distibutor and co-financier of Flags of our Fathers, and Warner Bros. will be the the domestic distributor of Letters From Iwo Jima…so there’s that element to consider.
Simultaneous Oscar campaigns for films released by the same studio have happened before, of course. Miramax had its own Life is Beautiful vs. Shakes- peare in Love competing for the Best Picture Oscar in ’98. Disney had The Insider running against The Sixth Sense in ’99. Miramax had The Aviator vs. Finding Neverland in ’04. Universal had Field of Dreams vs. Born on the 4th of July in ’89.
But Life is Beautiful was never considered a Best Picture front-runner, and neither was The Sixth Sense or Finding Neverland. The only analogy that really fits is the Field of Dreams vs. Born on the Fourth of July one.
If it comes down to a Flags vs. Dreamgirls standoff, the ideal situation, of course, would be for Press and Rich to push both with equal vigor. Press is a pro and will naturally strive to do that. She seems to be making the right moves by hiring outside Oscar campaign consultants for both films — Amanda Lundberg for Dreamgirls and a not-yet-finalized hire for for Flags.
But one studio insider who also knows his way around the racetrack sees other forces at work.
“It’s really not Terry Press making the call here,” he said. “This is about Spielberg and Katzenberg and Geffen…this is Geffen’s movie, Dreamgirls…and it’s about how these guys are joined in the planning the future of this studio. Dreamgirls is going to get the big push — it’s a non-contest.
“And I think Eastwood knows that, and I’m not so sure he even cares about playing this game at this stage in his life. But look at the power DreamWorks has at Para- mount these days, and you have to consider the hard reality, which is that from the DreamWorks/Paramount perspective, Clint is a 76 year-old director who’s basically a Warner Bros. guy on hiatus.”
The other strategist says “the reality is not Clint’s age but the fact that he’s won twice” — i.e., Best Picture Oscars for Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby — “and that he won last year.”
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