Conventional wisdom earlier this week had Twilight doing $55 to $60 million this weekend. Variety‘s Anne Thompson wrote on Thursday that the weekend gross “could exceed $50 million.” Then a friend at Thursday’s Revolutionary Road screening predicted $70 million and I said, “You think so? With just girls?”

Turns out she was right. Fantasy Moguls‘ Steve Mason is reporting a $33 million Friday haul (including Thursday’s midnight showings) and a projected $70 million haul by Sunday evening. A separate studio estimate puts the weekend total at $83 million, counting the Thursday midnight shows, although that’s probably high.

“The smart money follows the 3-day Sex & the City formula,” Mason writes, “with $22.1 million Saturday, down about 33% Friday-to-Saturday, followed by a 30% Saturday-to-Sunday dip to a possible $15.4 million. That would bring the weekend haul to an impressive $70.58 million.”