…she’s probably going to win in November. Because I can feel it, and because I’ve twice heard that teenage girls of comfort who’ve routinely made faces or rolled their eyes when political topics were raised at the family dinner table…these girls, I’ve heard from unscientific sources, are totally into the Harris campaign.

Discount this if you want, but I think it means something.

It means that Harris’s campaign isn’t political as much as cultural and historical, and people all over want to be a part of what appears to be a major tectonic shift.

SurveyUSA’s 8.5.24 nationwide polling shows Democrat Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump by 3 points in an election held today, August 5 2004.

Today it’s Harris 48%, Trump 45%; 3% of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate; 4% say they are undecided.

Trump leads by 12 points among men; Harris leads by 18 among women — a 30-point gender gap. When we break out men and women by their ethnicity, the enthusiasm for Harris seen among women of color, and especially among Black women, is clear:
Among Black women, Harris leads Trump by 74 points; among Black men, Harris leads Trump by 29.
Among Latino women, Harris leads Trump by 46 points; among Latino men, Trump leads Harris by 5.
Among women of Asian and other descent, Harris leads Trump by 30 points; among men of Asian and other descent, Harris leads Trump by 8.
Among white women, Trump leads Harris by 2; among white men, Trump leads Harris by 25 points.

Suburban women also, as some Democrats might say, seem to understand the assignment, voting for Harris by an 18-point margin, while suburban men vote for Trump by 15 points — a 33-point gender gap.

Elsewhere, Trump leads by 4 points among the youngest voters, those 18 to 34…mind-blowing! Harris leads by 10 points among those 35 to 49, by a nominal single point among those 50 to 64, and by 4 points among the oldest and typically most reliable voters. White voters taken as a whole prefer Trump by 13 points; Black voters prefer Harris by 53; Latino, Asian, and other voters prefer Harris by 19. Trump leads by 9 points among voters with high school educations, by a nominal single point among those who have attended some college; Harris leads by 15 points among those with 4-year college degrees.

Regionally, Trump leads by 5 points in the South; Harris leads by 3 in the Midwest, by 5 in the Northeast, and by 10 points in the West.