If Biden had resigned the Presidency and therefore made Kamala the new administrative king of the country as well as a symbol of relative youth (certainly compared to Donald Trump) and renewal, she would have, right now, a reasonably good chance of being elected in November.
President Kamala would be the new captain of the steamer with all the attendant power, and this would almost certainly install a feeling among voters that she’s due a certain deference…that this ceremonial figure and relatively untested commander-in-chief deserves her own term…a chance to show what she’s made of.
But Joe’s final act of Irish obstinacy and stubbornness — ending his campaign but insisting on serving his term out until 1.20.25 — means Harris is probably going to lose to Donald Trump on 11.5.24.
I’m glad that Joe is out and would like to see Kamala win, but I fear that average voters (outside of black women) don’t like or respect her enough, if they do at all.
The Kamala cabal can tapdance and shilly-shally all they want, but Harris was plopped into the Vice-Presidency because of gender and racial symbolism.
In the spring of 2020 candidate Biden, seeking the support of progressive women voters and especially the revolutionary #MeToo movement, had promised to choose a female running mate. Most of us understand that Harris fit that bill because of an added layer of political calculation —Joe wanted to emphasize his devotion to DEI (i.e., racial score-settling) in the wake of the George Floyd outrage and upheaval that rocked the country in May and early June of that year.
Harris — face facts — has never been a popular figure. She isn’t liked by a large swath of older, non-MAGA male voters (call them the Bret Stephens or Bill Maher community) and not just because of that terrible cackle. Harris didn’t win a single state during the 2020 primary season, she has a rep of being testy and an ineffective team leader, she dropped the ball on the Mexican immigration issue and she’s not a great public speaker (i.e., that whiny tone).
I realize that the Democratic establishment is timid by nature and already traumatized by the Biden collapse, and that the XX chromosome allegiance feels that electing a non-white woman president would be a great symbolic achievement, but a Harris candidacy, I fear, is not going to placate anyone or anything.
Unless, that is, she chooses Pete Buttigieg as her vice-presidential running mate, in which case all bets are off and the sky is potentially the limit.
Friendo #2: “I think you need to chill on this. If we are learning anything this unprecedented race is full of twists and turns. With the tables turned on Trump now (you can sense his unhappiness by his unhinged Truth Social in the past 24 hours) and him now being the oldest to ever run, PLUS a sentencing coming in September, debates, and the potential of a smart choice for VP (a governor from Midwest or Kentucky/NC being best.
“I love Buttigieg but America isn’t ready for a gay guy and also you don’t want someone from the administration already) her poll numbers could significantly increase. Most of all I am just counting on Trump to go more Trumpy than ever, blow that “unity” talk he lies about, and remind voters why he was so unpopular in the first place. It will be interesting to see what happens to RFK Jr.”
