For the first time since this site launched last August, I’m posting two new hot links sections — “Essentials” (around 50 of the usual-usuals) and “Eye-Openers” (striking, different, noteworthy…whatever) on the lower-right margin, below the fold. They’ll be up in the early evening. I’m open to any suggestions from anyone about any new links I should be posting, etc.
Would anyone besides myself be pleasantly startled if Paramount Classics’ Hustle & Flow out-performs Michael Bay’s The Island (DreamWorks) and Richard Linklater’s The Bad News Bears when all three open the weekend after next? Not a higher national gross but a much higher per-screen average, I mean. I’m not saying the Bay or the Linklater film won’t be #1 (either one could surge over the next eleven days), but the statistical fact is that The Island didn’t get that much of a benefit out of last Saturday’s nationwide sneak (60% general awarness, 25% definite interest and 2% first choice as of Sunday, 7.10). On top of this I’ve been detecting flat vibes during the showings of the Island trailer in theatres. Hustle & Flow, on the other hand, had a 44% awareness, 35% definite interest and 5% first choice last weekend — extremely decent numbers for an indie-type Sundance movie (even though Flow is actually quite the formumlaic crowd-pleaser) at this stage of the game. It’s also tracking extremely well among African-Americans. The Bad News Bears (Paramount), which still looks like to me like Bad Santa on a baseball diamond, has a huge general awareness rating (76%) but had only gathered a 20% definite interest and 2% first choice as of Sunday. Not awful but not that stupendous either. It’s always the definite interest and first-choice numbers that tell you what’s happening, and so far Hustle & Flow has the headwind….AND it’ll be sneaking nationwide this coming Saturday (7.16). I’m told Paramount is leaning toward booking it in somewhere between 900 and 1300 theatres for the 7.22 opening, and probably with a concentration on black neighborhoods. Assuming interest in this film will break down along racial lines seems short-sighted and even crass, given that Hustle & Flow strikes such a common and universal chord.
No change in tracking for the coming weekend. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (Warner Bros., 7.15), the first choice of 27% of likely moviegoers, will be the easy victor. And yet the numbers for Wedding Crashers have risen (definite interest is 17%) since last week, and the prognosis is for an opening in the mid $20 million range. It’s odd how many people have weighed in against this flawed but hugely funny film since…well, since I ran that qualified rave (first two thirds terrific, last third not-so-hot but it bounces back at the finish) last Friday. This thing is funny…what’s everyone being so pissy and cranky about?
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