What exactly will constitute an upset or big surprise in terms of Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations? I’ve been trying to figure that one. I’m not sure I give that much of a shit right now, but I guess I’ll rustle up some enthusiasm starting tomorrow sometime…

Variety critic Todd McCarthy has written a good bitch-and-moan piece about Sundance ’06. Called “The Big Chill,” it bemoans the mostly underwhelming dramatic competition entries except for Wristcutters: A Love Story (I presume this means McCarthy doesn’t harbor loads of affection for the award-winning Quinceanera), visually lackluster camera work in just about every film, punishing traffic snarls and parking problems, “too many useless scenesters clogging up the town,” showings starting way too late, etc. I still love looking up at those snowflakes at night and feeling their gentle moisture on my face, but I agree with every word McCarthy says here.

Like I mentioned earlier today, nobody I spoke to during the Sundance Film Festival had anything to say at all about the dual-award-winning Quinceanera, but Roger Ebert saw and wrote about it, at least. He called it “one of the strongest and most touching films in the competition…there is rich human comedy here, and sadness, and a portrait so textured that we get very involved…[it’s] a film that is serious, joyful, and filled with heart.”

The top two Screen Actors Guild awards — Best Actor and Best Actress — were handed out earlier this evening to Philip Seymour Hoffman for his legendary lead performance in Capote and Reese Witherspoon for her soulful country gal turn in Walk the Line. And the Best Supporting Actor trophies went to Cinderella Man‘s Paul Giamatti and The Constant Gardener‘s Rachel Weisz. It’s a fait accompli they’ll all be nominated Tuesday morning, and I guess they’re the quartet to beat at the Oscars on March 5th. Crash‘s “upset” win over Brokeback Mountain for the overall cast award might signify a Brokeback slowdown…maybe. But I doubt it.

Santa Barbara Film Festival director Roger Durling sat down with KTYD talk-show guy Matt McAllister last Friday to talk about the lineup for the festival (which kicks off Thursday, 2.2), and wound up issuing a “Brokeback challenge”…which McAllister accepted. Using the patient-but-persistent approach, Durling gradually talked the faintly homophobic McAllister into seeing Brokeback Mountain, which the jock has said he wouldn’t sit through due to feared squeamishness over the same-sex coupling scenes. Listen to the chat…it’s pretty funny. Durling and McAllister will be attending a screening of Brokeback on Monday, 1.30, at 2 pm at Santa Barbara’s Fiesta Five. Here’s Durling’s account of his encounter with McAllister on his festival blog page.

The Guardian‘s Graham Fuller is buying into a fantasy being pushed by Envelope columnist Tom O’Neil that Walk the Line or Crash might take the Best Picture Oscar from Brokeback Mountain. Whatever…fantasies are fun to wallow in sometimes.