12 Years A Slave “is in no trouble at all,” declares Grantland‘s Mark Harris. “At this moment, I would still call it the favorite for Best Picture and Best Director.” Okay. That’s not what I hear but…you know, great. No one wants Slave to win Best Picture more than me. It’s a humanist masterpiece. But I keep hearing it’s definitely in trouble, that it can’t win Best Picture. Respect but no love. Sorry. I hope everyone except Mark Harris is wrong.

I got a call earlier today from a smart movie guy, and he knows this phantom-like Oscar oddsmaker…a kind of consultant who sees everything and talks to a lot of Academy members and probably wears pricey suits but who shuns the spotlight and doesn’t give his phone number out. The guy funnels his information to…you tell me, maybe exhibitors or gambling operations or whomever. The point is that my movie pal says this guy, whom he’s known for years, has been “Nate Silver-like” and even “spookily accurate” in predicting Oscar winners. And this fucking guy (i.e., the phantom) is saying, believe it or not, that Saving Mr. Banks is going to take the Best Picture Oscar and that Emma Thompson, portrayer of P.L. Travers, is going to win for Best Actress.

Aarrrgghhhh!

I asked if I could speak to this guy and so my friend made the call right away, but the guy hasn’t responded so far. I laughed loudly and feigned shock when he dropped the bomb. “It’s the Driving Miss Daisy syndrome!,” I groaned. “Daisy, The King’s Speech, Argo…always the least offensive, most mild-mannered film with a poignant little emotional tug and the least amount of baggage. Plus it’s Hollywood factory-friendly. The sugarcoat syndrome wins out in the end and the artist goes home in frustration and the movie is a hit.”

I don’t skim lists of just-announced Sundance films and go “okay, here are highlights and here are a couple of apparent themes this year” and blah blah blah blah blah blah. Well, okay, I do skim lists of just-announced Sundance films and then go “okay, here are highlights and here are a couple of apparent themes this year” but I don’t do it right away. I like to think about it for a day or so. The easiest thing is to go from title to title and make snap judgments about which ones I won’t see because they sound repellent or awful or tedious or too Sundance-y, but that’s a little sloppy and haphazard. What I like to do is call two or three buyers and ask if they’ve heard anything. All I know is that I’ve got a place to stay all locked down and that I bought my ticket earlier today.

I’ve received a lot more than just these, of course. These are just the recognizable titles. Still looking for Inside Llewyn Davis and Wolf of Wall Street screeners. What I really want is a Bluray of the XXX-rated, four-hour or five-hour version of Wolf — that would be a real blast of whipped cream on the shortcake.

To the surprise of at least some in the awards-handicap racket, the National Board of Review has handed its Best Film award to Spike Jonze‘s delicate and affecting Her, and awarded Jonze as Best Director. This is a very welcome thing as Her has so far been simmering at best among the Guru-roovies and the Gold Derby-ites. I’ve never felt such rapport with or respect for the National Board of Review as I do right now. Give me a few days and I’ll revert to my default position of not thinking much of this group, but for now they’re very cool.

Spike Jonze‘s Her, trust me, is one of the two great love stories of 2013, the other being Blue Is The Warmest Color.

Charlie Stratton‘s In Secret (Roadside Attractions, 2.21.14) costars Elizabeth Olsen, Tom Felton, Oscar “Llewyn Davis” Isaac and Jessica Lange. Formerly called Therese, it’s an adaptation of Emile Zola‘s classic 1867 novel “Therese Racquin.” Florian Hoffmeister‘s cinematography seems dark, but you can’t go by a YouTube trailer. Pic was a special presentation at last September’s Toronto International Film Festival. Did I catch it there? Of course not. I don’t like to think about the stuff I miss.

Deadline‘s Nellie Andreeva is reporting that three schlock-horror guys — screenwriter Scott Kosar (The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, The Amityville Horror) and producers Eli Roth (Hostel franchise) and Eric Newman (The Thing) — are finalizing a deal with History to produce a kind of Biblical-era horror project about Jesus of Nazareth performing exorcisms before he started preaching at age 30. Jesus would be presented, I gather, as a young, sandal-wearing version of Father Karras. A cool handsome guy with a cosmic gleam in his eye and a destiny he hasn’t quite figured out yet. The project will be called The Lost Years.

How much you wanna bet that the sons and daughters of the right-wing loons who protested 25 years ago when Martin Scorsese‘s The Last Temptation of Christ depicted a fantasy married life between Jesus and Mary Magdelene…how much do you want to bet that these same crazies are going to be completely fine with Jesus the Exorcist?

When Amazon starts deploying its unmanned drone deliveries, you know that anti-social teens in the blighted areas are going to try and shoot them down and steal the merchandise. Or they’ll shoot them down just to shoot them down. It’ll become a huge “urban” sport. I see a surge in popularity for high-powered BB guns. Or perhaps a development of home-created, low-tech attack drones. And you know that with all kinds of BB pellets and small-calibre bullets flying through the air a lot of apartment windows are going to be cracked and some people are going to get hit. This was my first thought as I listened to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos announce the drone plan during a 60 Minutes interview with Charlie Rose.

A guy who was right in the thick of today’s New York Film Critics Circle balloting (which took almost five hours to complete) shares the following: “For four ballots the Best Picture vote was essentially a tie between American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave, and then Hustle finally won in a run-off vote against Slave. So it basically took five ballots. (N.Y. Post critic Lou Lumenick reports it actually took six ballots, although one of these was “disqualified on a technicality.”)

Inside Llewyn Davis was a contender all day long but it didn’t have the votes. At least it did better than The Wolf of Wall Street, which didn’t compete vigorously in any category.

“The Best Supporting Actress vote went on for three ballots, and was a very close match between Hustle‘s Jennifer Lawrence and 12 Years A Slave‘s Lupita N’yongo. Nebraska‘s June Squibb was in there but not very strongly.

“The Best Director voting went intially for Steve McQueen, David O’Russell, Alfonso Cuaron and the Coen brothers but McQueen and Russell were very close with the most support…and then McQueen took it on the fourth ballot.

“There was no strong challenge against Cate Blanchett for Best Actress although there was some support for Adele “whatsername” (i.e., Exarchopoulos) and Hustle‘s Amy Adams.

“Robert Redford‘s Best Actor trophy was decided on a second ballot. The bulk of the first-ballot votes went to Redford and Slave‘s Chiweitel Ejiofor. A certain level of support was also there for Oscar Isaac, Bruce Dern and Matthew McConaughey.

A vested but very sharp publicist friend who saw Wolf of Wall Street yesterday is wondering also if Leonardo DiCaprio‘s wild-ass performance as Jordan Belfort will necessarily result in a Best Actor Oscar nomination. “For me the movie is off the rails, in a good way — I dug it — but it may be too nuts/druggie for the Academy,” he writes. “And DiCaprio’s performance lacks any type of shading or nuance or subtlety or emotional range — it’s pretty much all gonzo, all the time, and the character is an unredeemable prick. Fun to watch but it may be a challenge for the oldies and women. I think it’s a well-constructed three hours, and Jonah Hill is amazing. The SAG Film Society audience at DGA laughed throughout but applause at end was tepid, even when Dicaprio’s name came up. I know that goes counter to what was reported from the SAG screenings that happened last weekend. I’m also hearing the HFPA was very negative on Wolf — many found it offensive, which means absolutely nothing as they like to have Leo and Scorsese in the room.”