Eliminating 2025 Best Picture Contenders

From HE’s mid-March perspective, there’s only one 2024 film that looks, sounds and stomps around like a meat-and-potatoes Best Picture contender.

That would be Kevin Costner‘s two-part Horizon: An American Saga (Warner Bros., Chapter One on 6.28, Chapter Two on 8.16).

But of course, wokester Oscar handicappers (i.e., Clayton Davis and the gang) are already against it because it’s about “the expansion of the American west” (i.e., white settlers in covered wagons rolling through Native American territory), and because the Yellowstone-linked Costner is generally perceived as too white, too old and too conservative. One thing’s for sure, and that’s that Lily Gladstone probably won’t be approving this film any time soon! But at least it’s big and eye-filling and going for the big chomp.

I’m putting my money on Horizon and, I suppose, Steve McQueen‘s Blitz because they feel semi-urgent and seem to be occupying their own turf, and have probably figured themselves out to some extent. They may amount to something Oscar-wise because of the commanding energy of their directors.

Otherwise 2024 is clearly looking fairly weak. Last year’s strikes (SAG and WGA) all but ruined our current annum. I’m just going to plow through some of the Best Picture contenders and explain why most of them don’t seem formidable or flinty enough or otherwise unlikely to connect with Joe and Jane Popcorn.

The whizbag stuff aside, Horizon and Blitz seem like the only two 2024 films that don’t feel cloistered or woked up or seemingly guilt-trippy or generally confined and audience-punishing.

Okay, let’s add Ali Abbasa‘s The Apprentice (Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump!), Todd PhillipsJoker: Folie a Deux and Paul Schrader‘s Oh, Canada.

What am I missing? What am I overlooking?

Steve McQueen‘s Blitz (Apple Original Films)…London blitzed by German bombs in early 1940s…likely Best Actress action for Saoirse Ronan…strong contender that I was hoping would debut in Cannes two months hence, but now I’m hearing “maybe not” and that Venice/Telluride is more likely.

Edward Berger‘s Conclave (Focus Features)…based on 2016 Robert Harris novel, British-American thriller about finding a successor to a suddenly deceased Pope. Written by Peter Straughan. Costarring Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini. Good reviews, probably not happening.

Ridley Scott‘s Gladiator 2 (Paramount, 11.22) gets an automatic demerit (if not a disqualification) because the dreaded Paul Mescal has the principal lead role, and secondly because Pedro Pascal is costarring, These two guys can kill any film of any kind. A supporting Denzel Washington (playing a former slave-turned-wealthy arms and commodity dealer with a grudge against the emperors”) is the only reason to feel aroused.

Denis Villeneuve‘s Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)…likely Best Picture nomination but won’t win.

George Miller‘s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros., 5.24)

Robert Zemeckis‘s Here…interesting concept…”the events of a single room and its inhabitants spanning from the past to well into the future”, etc.

Joshua Oppenheimer‘s The End (Neon)…post-apocalyptic, bad whitey guilt=trip film….”a wealthy family lives in an underground bunker two decades after the end of the world, which they directly contributed to”….forget it. Tilda Swinton, George MacKay, Moses Ingram, Michael Shannon.

Chris SandersThe Wild Robot (DreamWorks animated)….forget it…a robot Cast Away…not a chance, get outta town.

Andrea Arnold‘s Bird…an automatic problem due to HE anathema Barry Keoghan (weirdo, bee-stung nose) being the star.

Yorgos Lanthimos‘s Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight)….three-part antholoogy…not this time.

Francis Coppola‘s Megalopolis…ambitious, self-funded, out there…do you honestly believe Coppola will slamdunk this? Caveat emptor.

RaMell Ross‘s The Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)…abusive Florida reform school drama…white baddies, moral condemnation, constant audience punishment.

Malcolm Washington‘s The Piano Lesson (Netflix)…reasonable expectation of good reviews, probably not happening as a Best Picture contender.

Mike Leigh‘s Hard Truths…maybe but doubtful. You know Leigh.

Pablo Larrain‘s Maria…I don’t want to watch another Larrain film about a mythic, tragic or headstrong female character ever again.

Jason Reitman‘s SNL: 1975 (Sony Pictures).

Jon Chu‘s Wicked (Universal)….forget it

“An Officer and a Spy” Lives!

Regional journalist friendo: “Last night I finally watched Roman Polanski‘s An Officer and A Spy (aka J’Accuse).

“And you were right to praise it. It’s a terrific serving of meticulous, old-school filmmaking, beautifully directed and shot, with a top-notch cast (Jean Desjardin is sensational) and a story that builds and builds until you are emotionally and intellectually wiped out at the end. Just a beautiful piece of work.

“I’ve long been interested in the Alfred Dreyfus case, not just because I’m Jewish but because Emile Zola is one of my favorite authors, and what he did with J’Accuse was an act of true bravery, going up against the French establishment in such a fearless and principled way, which most likely cost him. It has long been suspected that Zola was murdered by enemies who blocked his chimney flue, causing him to die of carbon monoxide poisoning. He’s a real hero of mine.

“Anyway, the fact that Polanski’s film cannot be shown here is a tragedy for two reasons. One, it’s a monumental piece of work from a great director, and two, given the rise in anti-semitism these days, it seems particularly timely and necessary to absorb. So thank you, Jeff, for sending me this link. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate your thoughtfulness and generosity.”

Umpteenth HE message to #MeToo Stalinists: It’s been four and 1/3 years since the world premiere of An Officer and A Spy at the 2019 Venice Film Festival, and to this day Polanski’s film is still unreleased theatrically or on home video in the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand.

This is because the #MeToo brigade refuses to acknowledge the fact that the moral behavior of a given artist and the quality of the art created by this artist are two entirely different things. They reside in two entirely separate boxes.

And yet you persist in believing that Polanski’s rep must be permanently tarred and feathered and therefore J’Accuse, too, must be buried or otherwise scrubbed from existence. Because of reputedly credible accusations of Polanski having behaved badly and perhaps even criminally with certain younger women in the ’70s and ’80s. And because the distribution community is terrified of what you’ll say and do if one of their number would even consider streaming J’Accuse.

Polanski the man is not the same package as Polanski the artist. His depiction of awful or ghastly things in his films (he’s never explored Pollyanic fantasy and escapism) has never conveyed a corrosion or poisoning of his own spirit. He understands what goes, how it all works, who the good guys are. This is quite evident in the recently restored The Pianist as well as J’Accuse.

You should understand that this is not a good look for #MeToo, not just now but for all time to come.

Once again, consider a 6.21.12 N.Y. Times article called “Good Art, Bad People“, written by Charles McGrath.

Lost in Lopezville

This Is Me…Now is Jennifer Lopez‘s ninth studio album (released a month ago — 2.16.24 — fine).

What I’m lost on or way, way behind on (i.e., never paid the slightest attention to) are the two J. Lo films on Amazon — The Greatest Love Story Never Told and This Is Me…Now: A Love Story.

When you hit the This Is Me…Now Wiki page, it says “redirected from Greatest Love Story Never Told“…what?

I’m here to receive instruction…seriously. I don’t know where one begins and the other ends….I know nothing except that we seem to be talking about a lot of self-love here.

@royce.wynner Tiktok is cooking JLO. #jlo #jennyfromtheblock ♬ original sound – Royce Wynn

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Now That Everyone’s Seen “Love Lies Bleeding”

…presumably some strong reactions are kicking around or festering.

That bizarre Variety story about that Michigan lowlife has me wondering if straight guys are finding Rose Glass’s Love Lies Bleeding provocative on some level.

A friend has called Bleeding (now in its second weekend) “pretty good, like the Greg Araki version of Thelma and Louise, roughly.”

I respected the madhouse aspect, and the fact that it’s hungrily, aggressively sexual. (Which, as previously noted, present-day filmmakers are discouraged from exploring in a heterosexual way**.) Lotsa smooching, slurping, fingering and muff-diving,

Bleeding is like a backwater volcano that spews more and more lava. And it really uncorks the madness during the final third…subversive in a way that I didn’t see coming.

Previously noted: “I flinched a bit when the Glass went in for some light toe-chewing — sorry but the toes in question struck me as too thick and knobby. A voice inside went ‘eeeww, no…too much.'”

** Poor Things doesn’t count.