Deadline‘s Pete Hammond is picking Green Book to win the Best Picture Oscar for the same reason that everyone else is buying into this scenario — Green Book is a very strong preferential ballot contender whereas Roma is either a #1 pick or an end-of-the-lister.
Oh, and by the way: BlacKkKlansman‘s Spike Lee will be the recipient of a career-tribute “gimmee” by way of a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar (which he’ll share with Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott). Sorry, but that’s the best he can hope for.