A discussion recently raged about which films have the best shot at winning the Best Picture Oscar on 3.15.26.
“In a perfect world, Weapons,” I said, “but I don’t want to even hear about Sinners. I don’t wanna hear that word! Nominations but no big wins. Right now it’s One Battle After Another vs. Hamnet, except smart Academy members know they can’t hand the gold crown to Paul Thomas Anderson‘s film as doing so would brand the filmmaking community as unregenerate, hyperventilating lefty wombats who live on their own full-tilt island. So the problematic Hamnet will proably prevail at the end of the day. Despite the indisputable fact that…”
Friendo: “Yes?”
HE: “Despite the indisputable fact that Joachim Trier‘s Sentimental Value is far and away the best of them all…an honest, drillbitty, perfectly written and performed, Ingmar Bergman-esque family drama that deals straight cards, top to bottom.”
Friendo: “There’s no way a European-made, foreign-language film will win the Best Picture Oscar this year.”
HE: “It’s actually bi-lingual — an English-language title, of course, and performed in a mix of English, Norwegian and apparently a little Swedish. The English-speaking Elle Fanning plays a crucial supporting role (a major American actress) in her native tongue. It’s mostly in Norweigan, but there’s certainly enough English to qualify the film as bilingual and then some.
“In any event what about a little Korean-language film called Parasite? Took the Best Picture Oscar in 2020.”
Friendo: “That was a woke one-off. The younger Academy members refused to embrace Scorsese’s The Irishman, and fell for the then-fashionable notion of awarding a stringent social satire about poor people of color hustling rich people of color. Plus Bong Joon-ho relentlessly worked the town like a pro. Plus the Academy refused to deal with the hustlers letting the fired maid into the house during that rainstorm.””
HE: “So it’s not the foreign-language factor. Not really. You’re saying Sentimental Value can’t win because it’s mostly about a white Norweigan family. Not diverse enough.”
Friendo: “Parasite made $53 million at the U.S. box office, and over $253 million worldwide. I love Sentimental Value as much as you, but it’ll be lucky to make $5 million domestic. Americans are too thick to really get behind it.”