Two Days, One Night‘s Marion Cotillard won the New York Online Film Critics award today for Best Actress — her third triumph in the wake of the Boston Film Critics Society and the New York Film Critics Circle having decided the same thing within the last few hours/days. The three trophies also acknowledged her work in The Immigrant, but what are the odds that the Weinstein Co., distributor of that James Gray film, will launch a campaign for Cotillard at this late stage? Slim to none.

Established award-season analysts are going to pooh-pooh the Cotillard surge but the fact is that all along the chummy, entrenched know-it-alls (myself included) have been saying “Julianne Moore is due, Julianne Moore is due, Julianne Moore is due” and she definitely is, but now we have three major critics groups saying “Marion Cotillard, Marion Cotillard, Marion Cotillard” and a fourth, the Los Angeles Films critics Association, saying “Patricia Arquette” with Moore as runnner-up.

At the very least we’re seeing a significant disconnect between industry sentiments and the passions of Los Angeles, New York and Boston-based critics. Reality is knocking on your door, awards analysts and conventions-wisdom spouters. What say ye?

Part of what happened, as I guessed earlier today, is that the Lifetime banality of Still Alice overcame the respect and admiration that everyone has for Moore in general, and so critics figured they had to go with someone else, and Cotillard, who delivered a fine if less-than-bravura performance in Two Days, One Night, was the lucky recipient.