The Envelope‘s Pete Hammond is saying that “history would appear to be on Sean Penn‘s side” in the Best Actor race “since Milk has eight nominations — including best picture — indicating more overall support in the academy than for The Wrestler.

On top of which “Penn is playing a real-life figure and Rourke is not, and recent academy voting trends point to that factor as being very big.” Oh, come on! And yet “trying out an Oscar acceptance speech at any of the precursor award ceremonies can sometimes be a big plus, as in Rourke’s case at the BAFTAs, which has served as a reminder of his own remarkable comeback story. Voters are suckers for that.”