Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins is admired and respected by every industry and press person, but I suspect that he’s just won a pair of Best Director awards (from the Gothams last Monday night and the New York Film Film Critics Circle today) because of the New York foo-foo crowd, and that the real top-dog among the directing contenders is La La Land‘s Damian Chazelle. For whatever reason Manchester By The Sea‘s Kenneth Lonergan hasn’t won anything yet (he hasn’t even been nominated by the Spirit Awards), but when things settle down he might pull even with Jenkins. Maybe. For all I know Fences‘ director-star Denzel Washington is even or slightly ahead of Lonergan right now, but my gut tells me otherwise. Jackie‘s Pablo Larrain may also fall behind Silence‘s Martin Scorsese when the latter film begins to be seen by sizable crowds starting this weekend.