Pete Hammond suspects that Adam McKay‘s The Big Short will win the Best Picture Oscar. He believes that if The Big Short wins the top BAFTA award on Sunday night, “It’s over.” But you know something? During the film-clip reel at the start of last night’s Directors Tribute at the Santa Barbara Film Festival, The Revenant got the biggest applause. It was only a gathering of well-to-do Santa Barbara film fanatics, yes, but you could feel it — The Revenant has the most passionate following. I’m a devoted Spotlight fan, but my insect antennae is telling me that The Revenant will take the big prize on 2.28. It has the most Oscar nominations, Alejandro G. Inarritu won the DGA award, Leonardo DiCaprio is locked for Best Actor, it won the Golden Globe award for Best Picture, Drama, etc. Oscar voting began today — Friday, 2.12.16 — at 8 am Pacific. Voting closes on Tuesday, 2.23.16 at 5 pm Pacific.