An industry gadfly and Academy member who’s seen 12 Years A Slave wrote this morning and said three things: (a) “I am putting it at the top or near the top of my Best Picture nominations,” (b) “Boy, are you ever correct about Lupita Nyong’o” [being the leading Best Supporting Actress contender]…I can’t imagine any performance this year that will deny her that Oscar,” and (c) “Off the record, I talked to two fellow Oscar voters who’ve said they couldn’t stomach 12 Years. Another two walked out of it. Thought it was brilliant, but too much to bear. They all adore Gravity.”

I wrote right back and asked, “Can you tell me what these four do? What branch are they in? Writers, craftsmen, lighting guys…what? Break it down for me.” And he responded, “Two are in the writer’s branch, two of them are producers — all over sixty.”

He added that Slave costar Michael Fassbender “has a real solid shot as well” at Best Supporting Actor. And this: “I have not yet seen All Is Lost, but I think the sentimental wave alone gets Robert Redford the Best Actor Oscar.”