Dialika Krahe‘s 4.23 Der Spiegel article, titled “Nollywood’s Film Industry Second only to Bollywood in Scale,” has the following subhead: “Two-thirds of its population lives on less than a dollar a day, and yet Nigeria has the world’s second-largest film industry. It’s called Nollywood, and it provides Africa, and beyond, with a steady stream of action flicks and love stories.”

The average definite interest number for Jon Favreau‘s Iron Man 2 is 71 — 84 for under-25 males, 81 for over-25 males, 55 for under-25 females and 62 for over-25 females. That’s quite high for a film opening two weeks hence (i.e., 5.7). The average first choice figure for IM2 is 32, for God’s sake, while the average first choice for Furry Vengeance, which opens on 4.30, is 1 with an average definite interest of 19.

Roman Polanski pitchforkers will be heartened to learn that the likelihood of the 76 year-old director being flown back to Los Angeles for prosecution and probable jail time is now fairly high. The California 2nd District Court of Appeal has rejected the director’s 3.18 petition for an inquiry into alleged prosecutorial misconduct during his 1977 trial for unlawful sex with a minor, and now the final extradition decision is in the hands of Swiss authorities.

Dominic Patten‘s 4.23 Wrap report notes that “based on comments from the Swiss Foreign Ministry in March that such judgments are usually made within a year of the individual’s arrest, [a decision on Polanski’s extradition] may be made by September.”

Of the final four films announced as official Cannes selections, I’m most interested in Andrei Ujica‘s The Autobiography of Nicolae Ceaucescu, which will be shown out of competition. Because it’s emotionally satisfying to see a dogmatic murdering bastard eat lead for his sins, symbolically or otherwise.

The president of Communist Romania from 1974 until his firing-squad death in December 1989, Ceaucescu was a selfish, ruthless weasel of a dictator. The evidence is that he and his wife Elena deserved to be gunned down in a courtyard. Sic semper tyrannis.

The showing of Lucy Walker‘s Countdown to Zero, first seen at Sundance and acquired by Magnolia from Participant, was also announced. Ditto the last two competiton entires — Wang Xiaoshuai‘s Chongqing Blues, and Kornel Mondruczo‘s Tender Son — The Frankestein Project.

Between Hotel Rwanda, Peter Raymont‘s Shake Hands With The Devil: The Journey of Romeo Dallaire, Ghosts of Rwanda and those PBS Frontline documentaries about the 1994 slaughter, I feel Rwanda-ed out. But I’ll still be catching Deborah Scranton‘s Earth Made of Glass, a Tribeca Film Festival selection, at Monday night’s premiere.

Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda will be there for the q & a as well as Jean Pierre Sagahutu, the genocide survivor featured in the film.

“From the director of The War Tapes comes a powerful new film that looks at the horrific 1994 genocide in Rwanda from both personal and political perspectives,” the Tribeca notes begin. “On August 6, 2008, against the backdrop of the world’s deadliest war in neighboring Eastern Congo, Rwandan President Paul Kagame released a report detailing the French government’s hidden role in planning the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Three months later, his closest aide, Rose Kabuye, was arrested by France on charges of terrorism.

“Meanwhile, Jean Pierre Sagahutu, a genocide survivor haunted by his father’s unsolved murder, scours the Rwandan countryside on a 15-year-search for clues and ultimately finds himself confronted with his darkest desire: being face-to-face with his father’s killer. As President Kagame fights to free Rose from France and expose the truth about what really happened in Rwanda 15 years ago, Jean Pierre journeys to the scene of the crime, and the doorstep of a killer, to uncover the chilling facts behind his father’s death.

“As each relentlessly pursues the truth — with the fate of a family and a country hanging in the balance — they find themselves faced with a choice: enact vengeance or turn the other cheek Deborah Scranton crafts this dark material into an inspiring and uplifting examination of the search for truth beyond justice and the long road to redemption in Rwanda.”

Two days ago seven 2010 Tribeca Film Festival selections — The Infidel, The Trotsky, Metropia, sex & drugs & rock & roll, Climate of Change, The Birth of Big Air and Road, Movie — became available as On Demand titles through various cable providers. Four 2009 selections were also included in the package: TiMER, My Last Five Girlfriends, The Wild and Wonderful Whites of West Virginia and The Swimsuit Issue.

Has this happened before during a Tribeca fest? Here’s an assessment by The Wrap‘s Brent Lang.

This is a result of a new partnership between Tribeca Film and American Express. Cable providers include Time Warner Cable, Cox, Comcast, Cablevision (iO), RCN, Verizon Fios, DirecTV Cinema, Brighthouse Networks, Bresnan, Amazon On Demand and Vudu.

In a chat with Vulture before last night’s Tribeca Film Festival red-carpet gala for Shrek Forever After, Eddie Murphy said something interesting: “I’ve lost a lot of my cool and edge…I think my cool and edge are gone.” No! After doing the overpaid superstar asshole trip for the last 23 or 24 years (starting with his role in 1986’s The Golden Child) which culminated with exiting the ’07 Oscar ceremony after he didn’t win for Best Supporting Actor in Dreamgirls, Murphy is actually copping to this possibility?

“You know, I think I’m onto some other place,” he added. “Whatever my edge or cool was back then, I’m onto some other area. I don’t know what it is. I’m thinking about getting into stand-up, see what comes up.”

That may be red-carpet b.s., but it’s still the most genuinely appealing comment I’ve heard Murphy say since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. Speaking as one who saw him do his stand-up act twice in the early ’80s (once at Catch a Rising Star in Manhattan, the other at the Universal Amphitheatre in ’83), this seems like the smartest thing he could possibly do at this stage. The only thing, really, that that inject something vital into his veins and his soul. He’s been Charles Foster Kane living behind the gates of Xanadu and wearing that smug-ass, “I’m rich and you’re not” expression for an awful long time. But that kid I saw perform 27, 28 years ago was alive on the planet.

Yesterday the Toronto Star‘s Peter Howell observed that (a) the “crystal balls of box-office wizards, prophets and know-it-alls have gone cloudy in the weekly game of predicting which movie will top the charts,” and (b) the primary reason is that box-office expectations have in some cases been too high.

How to Train Your Dragon was initially called an under-performer, Howell writes, but is “still breathing fire” with $158 million in the till and therefore “a profitable slow-burner.” Kick-Ass‘s $19.8 million opening was called disappointing (it certainly wasn’t triumphant) but it “may yet prove to be” another steady earner, he says. Date Night‘s opening was also called a short-faller but has since become “more than just a one-night stand” with ticket buyers. Throw ’em all together and handicapping box-office stats has become like “playing the ponies or betting on Stanley Cup finalists,” he concludes.

Variety‘s Peter Bart and Box-Office Guru‘s Gitesh Pandya tell Howell that recent forecasts have been “wrong” and “out of whack,” but Howell doesn’t mention two important considerations.

One is that that box-office expectations are never primarily based on hunches and guesswork. They’re always based on tracking reports, particularly the definite interest and first-choice numbers among the four demographic quadrants — under-25 and over-25 males and females.

The other is that marketing experts in the employ of major distributors come up with more or less the same box-office expectations, and also that sometimes they’ll attempt to obscure this data by downplaying expectations in conversations with reporters in order to enhance the perception of a film’s performance.

So if anything, the issues at hand are (a) how accurate are tracking reports?, (b) what is lacking in their assessments of Average Joe sentiments about upcoming films?, and (c) how could their methodology change to improve things?

Chris Hansen has an exemplary record of investigative inquiries (terrorist groups and Al-Qeada ops, airport security, Columbine, Oklahoma City terrorist attack, Unabomber, TWA Flight 800 disaster, Indian child slave labor, etc.), and yet his eternal, indelible identity will always be that of a mild-mannered buster of child predators, explaining the facts to perverts in kitchens and foyers as the cops gather outside, etc.

Variety‘s Tatiana Siegel and Andrew Stewart are reporting that Michel Gondry‘s The Green Hornet is not only “going 3D” but being bumped from 12.22.10 to 1.14.11 — “the slower Martin Luther King weekend.”

“The studio bristled at the notion that bad buzz surrounding the project played a role in its decision to abandon one of choicest days on the box office calendar,” they’ve written. “Instead, Sony said that once the decision was made to incorporate 3D during the production process, Green Hornet needed to find a frame with sufficient digital screens.”

Here’s what my guy says: “Sony is not merely converting The Green Hornet into 3-D, but rewriting and reshooting sizable chunks of the movie. The action sequences don’t cut together and [are saddled with comprehension issues]. This isn’t a conversion — it’s an overhaul using 3-D as a smokescreen.”

Why can’t the people who assemble these Hitler parodies (even this one) submit their copy to spell-check before posting? An apostrophe is idiotic when pluralizing “DVD.” Any twelve year-old kid can tell you that. “Helped improved awareness…”?

The Criterion DVD of Sidney Lumet‘s The Fugitive Kind arrives on 4.27. DVD Beaver‘s Gary Tooze says “the image looks good although not always stellar. I suspect it is as strong as the source elements will allow and probably what held it back from going Blu-ray.”

Marlon Brando, Joanne Woodward in Sidney Lumet’s The Fugitive Kind, coming to Criterion DVD on 4.27.

I would written something myself but a screener never arrived, despite my having received them from Criterion’s NY rep over the last couple of years.

“Criterion’s first disc shares the feature film with nothing else — not even a trailer — so the bitrate for the 2-hour film is very high,” Tooze reports. “It looks somewhat lighter and the softness appears to be inherent. The audio is mono — unremarkable but clean and clear. Criterion offer optional English subtitles.

“The new DVD is stacked with a second, dual-layered, disc starting with a 1/2 hour video interview with Lumet recorded for Criterion in 2010. He talks with passion and understanding about his career, the actors and especially Tennessee Williams. There is another half-hour piece entitled Hollywood’s Tennessee and The Fugitive Kind with R. Barton Palmer and Robert Bray supplying rich information about the lauded playwright.

“We also get three 20-minute one-act plays by Tennessee Williams from 1958, directed by Lumet and starring the likes of Ben Gazarra and Lee Grant, among others. Video quality is kinescope style and expectantly poor. Lastly, there is a 20-page liner notes booklet featuring photos and an essay by film critic David Thomson.”