N.Y. Post critic Lou Lumenick is listening to vibrations from his insect antennae, and they’re telling him that a possible American Sniper Best Picture win is in the cards. The suspicion is that Birdman and Boyhood have failed to accumulate a decisive vote tally. The notion was initially hatched when Lumenick regarded the final Gold Derby vote and deduced that Birdman and Boyhood were evenly split. HE to Lumenick: The Gold Derby guys are obsessive but at the end of the day they aren’t privy to any special information or intuitions. On top of which you’re ignoring the “better to fall on the Boyhood sword than capitulate to Birdman” attitude, which is definitely out there. The notion also came from a recent observation shared by Grantland‘s Mark Harris that few of his Manhattan-residing Academy member pallies are giving Birdman their Best Picture vote….boiinngggg! But don’t get me wrong. If Sniper takes the big prize I’ll be as jolted and amused as anyone else and whoo-whooing from the sidelines. Whatever happens, happens. But it’s not in the cards. An awful lot of Hollywood lefties hate the idea of siding with hinterland types about the Iraq War effort by way of sharing/feeling a certain compassion for the troops, or more particularly for Chris Kyle, who was no sweetheart.