“Today is the first truly bad day for Dreamgirls in terms of the movie’s box office and the awards race,” a certain party admitted earlier today. “To expand by 1000 or so screens and still be off from last Friday is not a great thing…one could argue that it dropped a lot less than the other holdovers. Still, it can not be said that this is a banner day for the film.
“As I have written for a while now, the box-office life of Dreamgirls is a big part of what will or will not make it win Best Picture. (And yes, I have always believed in the ‘win.’) And if the film does not continue to perform at a very high level, then it does become a multi-horse race and the dynamic changes…which is not to say that it won’t win in that dynamic. But quite a different kettle of fish.
“On the other hand, if the film picks up this weekend and gets stronger in the next expansion, it should still win easily.”
It has been a multi-horse race for several weeks now, but this is not a time to argue. This is a time to retire to a bar in Santa Monica for an hour or two, and then take a walk on the beach. There’s a party for United 93 tonight at a nice restauant on Melrose in West Hollywood, and there’s another bash being thrown for the radiant Penelope Cruz in the Westwood area, and all I really, really want to do is ride around town on a bike.