It doesn’t matter if Dreamgirls wins the Golden Globe award for Best Musical or Comedy, which may happen. The Dreamgirls downturn, which is blitzkrieging right now, began about a week and a half to two weeks ago, and I suspect that the HFPA voters weren’t as attuned to this turn in the wind when they cast their ballots as they (probably) are right now.
What I’m saying is (and I take no pleasure from writing this, being an admirer of various portions of Bill Condon‘s musical, for what that may be worth), Dreamgirls is going to lose the Best Picture Oscar no matter how it goes tonight. If it wins the Best Musical or Comedy GG award, it’s fucked. If it doesn’t win the Best Musical or Comedy GG award, it’s really fucked,
The Bagger has written that he was “at a crappy diner on La Cienega late Saturday night talking with someone, he won’t say who, and she argued that Dreamgirls was a broken toy to begin with, a grand spectacle, but with problems in the third act that left audiences feeling like it was a movie they liked just fine, but did not love.
“The Bagger still thinks that Dreamgirls might win at the Globes” — entirely possible — “and will be around for the big dance of the final five. Others doubt it will get that far.” [News to me.] “Given who its backers are and the amazing back-story of Jennifer Hudson, the movie is not going away. But it will have to get past some big scary competition — The Departed — and ferocious little competitors — Little Miss Sunshine — to get to the podium.”