One reason for the box-office death of Swing Vote last weekend was that under-35s constituted only 35% of the audience, according to Variety. I’d be willing to bet that the percentage of under-25s who went to Swing Vote was more like 15% or lower. The political content of the Costner film was made clear by trailers and TV ads, so it can be assumed this element dampened enthusiasm.
Which leads again to concerns about how politically-averse the middle American under-25s will be this November? Some of us suspect the election is going to be a squeaker with Obama winning by two or three points, maybe less. The margin of victory will of course depend on the turnout by African Americans, Hispanics, the liberal 18 to 24s, college-educated professionals, previously-Clinton-supporting women, etc. It’s all about turnout, turnout, turnout.
I just wish there was a reason to feel better about the under-25 commitment levels, despite the ’04 data that everyone’s seen. What is the actual percentage of voting-eligible younger citizens who are expected to vote three months from now? 30-something per cent? You can’t trust these guys.