From Scott Feinberg’s 9.5 assessment piece, “Lady Bird Could Be a Rare Female-Centered Oscar Contender”:

Lady Bird seems to go over best with women, but the Academy’s demographics, despite recent efforts to increase diversity, still do not favor female-centric movies. Still, one or two such films manage a Best Picture Oscar nomination each year, and Lady Bird could well be one of them this year, especially with Rudin behind its sails. 

“Even more likely, though, are noms for Saoirse Ronan as Best Actress, Laurie Metcalf as Best Supporting Actress and Greta Gerwig for Best Original Screenplay, and perhaps Tracy Letts as Best Supporting Actor as well.”

HE to Feinberg: (1) If Lady Bird goes over “best with women”, how do you account for Sasha Stone‘s measured, less-than-wholehearted approval (she wrote this morning that Lady Bird is “still in pretty good standing for a [Best Picture] nod, at least right now”) and guys like me doing somersaults?;  

(2) Ladybird isn’t going to “manage” a Best Picture nomination — it is a Best Picture nominee waiting to happen. At least that. The only thing to worry about are people complaining about Ronan’s character being “somewhat unlikable.”; 

(3) You’re not forecasting a Best Director nomination for Gerwig? It’s her movie, her life, her soul, her casting, her dialogue, her style and editing choices…everything. How could her direction not be nominated alongside Ronan and Metcalf’s performances?