I announced this morning that I’ll jump off the Santa Barbara pier if Steven Spielberg‘s Lincoln wins the Daryl F. Zanuck award at the conclusion of tonight’s Producers Guild Awards. (The announcement should come around 10 pm Pacific, give or take.) A little while ago I was going to walk down to the end of the pier to see how much of a jump it is and whether the water is deep enough as I don’t make idle threats. But I’m not getting wet tonight. You know it, I know it.

I’ve just spoken to Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, who’s on his way down to the Beverly Hilton as we speak. None of the handlers are certain what’s going to happen or not happen, he says, but Lincoln is probably not going to take it because “it doesn’t have the passion vote.” I’ve been saying that all along. It’s hard to vote for a combination civics lesson, grandfather clock and sleeping pill.

Either Ben Affleck‘s Argo or David O. Russell‘s Silver Linings Playbook will take the prize….but probably Argo, which “puts producers in a good light,” remarks Hammond. “That’s as good a reason as any other” to predict an Argo win.

I personally believe that Bill Clinton‘s Lincoln plug at the Golden Globes was the thing that cooked Lincoln‘s goose as it made Spielberg, who asked Clinton to show up, look too desperate, too hungry.

I’m betting on Silver Linings Playbook winning the SAG ensemble award tomorrow night. The 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards will air on TBS and TNT at 5 p.m. Pacific.

SAG ensemble could go to Silver Linings or Les Miz…they could well get the ensemble thing…..