In this 12.30 posting, The Envelope‘s Tom O’Neil and Village Voice columnist Michael Musto dish on the likely Best Actress nominees. These guys are great at this because they’re glib and superficial and perceptive and blunt (at times to the point of being merciless) — surrender one of these qualities and it all falls apart! — and because Musto’s droll downtown urbanity meshes well with O’Neil’s eager-beaverness.

Meryl [Streep] is obviously a lock for her pinch-faced nun,” Muston begins, “and Rachel‘s Anne Hathaway is another lock as the sociopath who disrupts the wedding, whom I was rooting for. Being put into a mental asylum gets you a nomination so I think Angelina Jolie is getting in for Changeling. Mike Leigh ‘s women get nominated so I’m rooting for Sally Hawkins, who has a lot of momentum.

Kristin Scott Thomas‘ understated performance is falling off, a lot of people haven’t seen the screener [of I’ve Loved You So Long], and the ending is a little cheesy….Kate Winslet is the new Deborah Kerr, let’s face it… she could get two nominations and still lose…New York magazine called it a masterwork, but people are going to turn against Revolutionary Road, ahd instead say ‘give her the nod for The Reader.’ And I’m afraid that the other gals — Melissa Leo, Michelle Williams — are going to fall through the cracks…Sally Hawkins is taking their quirky indie spot.”

And this one about the Gay Superbowl is good also….”Hugh Jackman is openly whatever.”