My secret hope-of-hopes has been that the top two Oscar prizes would be split — The Shape of Water‘s Guillermo del Toro winning for Best Director but something else winning for Best Picture. Like, for example, Greta Gerwig‘s Lady Bird. Because Lady Bird, at least, is one of HE’s three best films of the year, the other two being Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name. But my spirit is wilting.

The Best Picture Oscar will probably go to The Shape of Water with Martin McDonagh‘s Three Billboards the principal alternate winner. Last night Del Toro won the Directors Guild of America’s top feature prize; Get Out‘s Jordan Peele won the Best First-Time “Woke” Feature Director trophy (or whatever it’s called).