I was saying to a friend a couple of hours ago that I personally can’t imagine The King’s Speech winning a Best Picture trophy from the New York Film Critics Circle or the L.A. Film Critics Association. I mean, I’d fall right out of my chair if that happens…but it can’t…right? Anyway, when and if the King’s Speech myth of inevitability has fallen away, a healthy percentage of MCN Gurus are going to say to each other, “Oh, my…what to do? Where to go? What safe winner can we flock around now?”

And then, I’m guessing, they’re going to start moving over to The Fighter. Especially if it gets lucky and wins with either the L.A. Film Critics Association (voting Sunday) or the New York Film Critics Circle (voting Monday). Not that I think this will happen — I fully expect The Social Network to win with both groups. But you never know…

“It has been common wisdom as this awards race moves into full gallop that Best Picture Oscar may come down to The Social Network and The King’s Speech,” Deadline‘s Pete Hammond wrote yesterday morning. “But after this week, I believe we may be adding a new heavyweight contender if mounting buzz is any indication. Academy members who are starting to see Paramount/Relativity’s The Fighter, particularly after Monday night’s premiere, are starting to talk in ways that make Oscar consultants for rival films nervous.

“‘It’s a great movie, it really is,’ one major writer/director told me last night. An exec close to the film’s campaign says the studios are starting to hear this a lot and points out one director branch member who came up after the film and told her, ‘I think I’ve just seen the Best Picture of the year.’ This exec says, ‘I know I should be drinking coffee but I am starting to drink my own Kool Aid. I think this thing is really starting to take off.'”