Variety‘s award-season columnist Clayton Davis tends to be very encouraging when it comes to assessing the Oscar odds of nearly every would-be Best Picture contender, at least in the early stages. He can be (and usually is) a very generous handicapper,

Which is why Davis may have delivered a symbolic kiss of death to Pablo Larrain‘s Spencer. Davis believes that Kristen Stewart‘s performance as Diana, Princess of Wales is good to go for Best Actress (at least a nomination) but the film itself…well, who knows?

Basic equation: If an obliging good-time Charlie is skeptical of a film’s Best Picture chances in September, there may be reason for concern down the road.