Yesterday Hollywood Reporter award-season analyst Scott Feinberg, relying on exhaustive cross-checking of data and precedents mixed with his usual Yoda-like perceptions (which are not the same thing as being graced with Hollywood Elsewhere-style insect antennae), posted some spitball projections on the basis of “if the Oscars were held tomorrow and voters could consider only contenders that have already been screened” — i.e., at Telluride and Toronto. I’m reposting a few along with HE commentary:

(1) Feinberg starts by declaring that Spotlight would win Best Picture, Tom McCarthy would win Best Director for his work on that Boston-based drama, and that Spotlight would win for Best Original Screenplay. (HE comment: Agree, fully deserved) He also projected that The Danish Girl‘s Eddie Redmayne would win Best Actor (HE comment: Just you wait) and that Brooklyn‘s Saoirse Ronan would win Best Actress (HE comment: Fine).

(2) Feinberg also projected that Joel Edgerton‘s over-performed and overly-accented John Connolly in Black Mass would win for Best Supporting Actor. (HE comment: The light blue suits won by Edgerton in Scott Cooper‘s film are a disqualification in and of themselves.) Feinberg also believes The Danish Girl‘s Alicia Vikander would win Best Supporting Actress (HE comment: I get it — everybody gravitated toward her performance when they realized that Redmayne’s was so relentlessly delicate and one-note, but it’s early yet).

(3) Feinberg is sensing that a year after the #OscarsSoWhite ceremony, Straight Outta Compton will be a Best Picture Oscar nominee (HE comment: SOC is a gripping, well-made film but a Best Picture nom is unlikely, and if it happens it would be seen as a token bone thrown to the diversity crowd).

(4) Feinberg believes that three recent winners have a strong shot at winning again: Revenant director Alejandro G. Inarritu (HE comment: Agreed), The Danish Girl‘s Eddie Redmayne (HE comment: Keep dreaming that dream, fella), and Joy‘s Jennifer Lawrence (HE comment: Definitely).