Dave “weather vane” Karger, the Fandango smoothie whose Oscar predictions always seem to reflect the Academy’s lowest-common-denominator sentiments, isn’t going with The Butler‘s Oprah Winfrey as the most likely Best Supporting Actress winner. He’s instead picking 12 Years A Slave‘s Lupita N’yongo to take the prize. For a guy who always defaults to the soft center and almost never stands alone, this is a significant bellwether. Karger, in fact, is predicting a 12 Years a Slave sweep — Best Picture, Best Director (Steve McQueen), Best Actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor) and Best Adapted Screenplay (John Ridley). He’s going with Blue Jasmine‘s Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, of course. Karger also has All Is Lost‘s Robert Redford listed as his second-most-favored Best Actor contender.