So Matthew McConaughey has the Best Actor Oscar in the bag, and the Best Supporting Actor winner will be, of course, Jared Leto. Even people in rural China know that Cate Blanchett is a deadbolt lock for Best Actress. But at tonight’s SAG awards, a surprise. 12 Years A Slave‘s Lupita Nyong’o finally beat American Hustle‘s Jennifer Lawrence for Best Supporting Actress…yes! And American Hustle won the Best Ensemble award, meaning that it’s now it’s at least probable that David O. Russell‘s film will take the Best Picture Oscar, and that Glenn Kenny will owe me $50. Remember when $50 seemed like a moderately hefty sum?