The longer Oscar season goes on, the harder it is to make supposedly on-target Oscar Balloon calls and — this year — offer similarly shrewd predictions for The Envelope‘s Buzzmeter. You get sick of it after a while, for one thing. And you can’t abstain 100% from putting in films and performances that you know are superior grade, even if you know deep down they probably don’t have a chance of being nominated. And you can’t discount the notion that we’re on a moving train. You can smell the coffee like anyone else and predict Forrest Whitaker and Helen Mirren to win for Best Actor and Best Actress, etc., but if you don’t draw from the heart and follow your instincts, it starts to feel foul. The more uniform the predictions, the draggier this game gets.