Last night I mentioned the alleged inevitability of The Help‘s Viola Davis winning the Best Actress Oscar to an A-list director who was hosting a party at his home, and if anything his pulse rate dropped. His reaction to Davis in a word: “meh.” Not a nod that said “okay, yeah, maybe,” Not a half-enthusiastic “yeah, she’s good in that film” or “yeah, friends have told me they like her a lot in that film.” Just a shrug and a meh. And he knows a lot of working Academy people who know people, etc.

I’m not saying Davis isn’t an all-but-guaranteed nominee. She is. But don’t get too cocky about her being an all-but-certain winner.

This guy also told me he wasn’t all that turned on by Moneyball, and when I heard that my spirits sank.