Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil, writing on the Envelope’s Awards Tracker, says he was “flabbergasted” on 2.10 when a sage Academy member said his Best Actress vote is going to Annette Bening. O’Neil gasped because this guy “has backed all of the underdogs who ended up winning in recent years — Crash, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton.” The wise guy’s other picks: The King’s Speech (Best Picture), David Fincher (director), Colin Firth (lead actor), Christian Bale (supporting actor) and Melissa Leo (supporting actress).