Envelope/Gold Derby guy Tom O’Neil is predicting that Inglourious Basterds will win the Best Picture Oscar.

Trust me — this won’t happen. We’re living in anxious, racially attuned, recession-afflicted times, and that means Up In The Air — the only film by my measure that has that dignified, settled, summing-up-everyone-and-everything vibe — or Invictus will take it. Enjoyable as it is and admired in some quarters, there is no discernible echo and spiritual after-effect in Inglorious Basterds.

I’m not alone in this thinking. In Contention‘s Kris Tapley has Basterds and director-writer Quentin Tarantino ranked pretty far down.