The orchestra cutting off Al Gore as he got out his speech to announce…hilarious! This has been a very witty, very engaging, very nicely produced show thus far. Congrats to Laura Ziskin.

Okay, here we go….the Murphy-Arkin moment. Rachel Weisz at the podium going through the speech, and the tension is all but unbearable as the winner of the Best Supporting Actor Oscar hangs in the balance. Here we go, I can take it….the Oscar goes to Alan Arkin! Oh my God! There is a God, there is a God in heaven. Thanks to all the saints and angels. I will say nothing more. The win is the win is the win.The right thing has happened. The Movie Gods have done what they do best. Why should I comment about what Ellen said to Marky-Mark?

The Best Sound-Editing Oscar, presented by Steve Carell and Greg Kinnear, is supposed to go to Letters From Iwo Jima….and the Oscar goes to the Jima guy! Sasha Stone is forgiven. The Best Sound Mixing Oscar is supposed to go to Dreamgirls, and the Oscar goes to…Dreamgirls! I have nothing to say about this except that anyone following my recommendatons so far isn’t doing half badly!

Wait a minute…the Best Animated Short Oscar was supposed to be won by The Little Matchgirl. The Danish Poet won instead. Blame Sasha Stone, blame Tom O’Neil…blame somebody! Well, at least West Bank Story won for Best Live Short. I was in the bathroom when Pan’s Labyrinth won for Best Makeup, but I’m starting to feel The Lives of Others may be doomed. As far as its chance for winning the Best Foreign-Language Oscar, I mean. Sniff.

Daniel Craig and Nicole Kidman handing out the Best Art Direction Oscar, which will go to Pan’s Labyrinth..right? And the winner is Pan’s Labyrinth! Does this mean anything as far as the Best Foreign Language Oscar is concerned?

The Oscar show has begun, and Errol Morris is a genius…okay? He’s perfect, inspired, wonderfully gifted. I want to see the long version of his interiew montage. My first impressions of Ellen DeGeneres — everyone’s, I imagine — are quite favorable. She’s obviously a very bright and witty lady. And obviously likable. The jokes are quite blunt (as in “beyond candid”). Which is why she’s very funny. Peter O’Toole…eight nominatons as of tonight, right? Well, you know what they say — third time’s the charm!” “Al Gore is here tonight. America did vote for him, and then…” If there weren’t blacks, Jews or gays, there would be no Oscars. Or anyone named Oscar.”

The Steve Pond vs. Nikki Finke reporting war continues, the latest salvo being Pond’s claim that he has “copies of every daily show breakdown starting from Monday of this week and the awards never moved,” as Finke claimed in her response earlier this afternoon. “The Dreamgirls songs have not changed,” writes Pond. “They were pre-recorded several days ago, all with the same arrangements that will be used tonight. There was never anything changed in reaction to any of her reports.” That’s enough of this, I think…let’s just let it go.

Yeah, I’ll be live-blogging during the show…sure. From a party. The host told me there’d be good wi-fi. Here’s hoping.

“Hollywood is in a quandary….you have the feeling in many of my conversations that people feel married to the Clintons, but they’re in love with Obama.” — Arianna Huffington speaking on a 2.22.07 National Public Radio report about the Clinton-vs.-Obama spat. As N.Y. Times columnist Maureen Dowd said to MSNBC’s Tim Russert about the impact of her interview with David Geffen, Geffgen “gave voice to a lot of what a lot of Democratic contributors have been saying about Hilary, which is that she’s polarizing, calculating and over-scripted.”

The Oscar Night upsets I’d most like to see happen (other than Alan Arkin beating Eddie Murphy) are…well, anything. I’ll take any and all shockers. Except Letters From Iwo Jima taking Best Picture Oscar. I’d really, really rather not see that happen. But generally speaking, if no one except for obstinate love wolves like like Kris Tapley have predicted it and it happens, great. Peter O’Toole taking the Best Actor Oscar from Forest Whitaker …fine. The Lives of Others triumphing over Pan’s Labyrinth in the Best Foreign Language Film category.

Mark Bakalor of Oscar Central has posted his final Oscar calls. The word around the campfire is that year after year, Bakalor’s calls are unusually accurate. And he has The Departed up for Best Picture. Ditto Scott Feinberg.

Peter Rainer, an extremely perceptive and respected film critic, has written an L.A. Times love sonnet to Eddie Murphy. Why would anyone on Rainer’s level do this? What kind of editors would want such a piece at this stage of the game?