During this morning’s Oscar Poker chat (to be posted later tonight or tomorrow morning), Boxoffice.com’s Phil Contrino voiced a data-based hunch that The Artist (Weinstein Co., 11.23) is going to do “Hurt Locker-level business,” or a domestic gross south of $15 million. Which is what it’ll probably make if every over-40 film Catholic buys a ticket. Which is what I’ve been urging this crowd to do all along. But if it stops at $12 million or so, what will this mean in terms of a potential Best Picture nom…if anything?