Zero Dark Thirty “is not another Argo,” says Gold Derby‘s Tom ONeil. “It doesn’t have that hysterical pacing of a thriller. It’s got more of an art-house aura. That means it will probably do well with critics, who can be its Oscars champion, just like they were for The Hurt Locker.

“[This] is just the kind of flick that could win New York Film Critics Circle,” he goes on, “but it will have a disadvantage at the Oscars. It’s not going to nail as many nominations as Les Miserables or Lincoln, and maybe fewer than Argo and Django Unchained, too.” Keep ignoring Silver Linings, Tom…keep it up!

And then O’Neil warns that the lack of across-the-board nominations could “hurt” ZDT “since the movie with the most nominations wins Best Picture about two-thirds of the time.” I solemnly hate that reductive Jimmy-the-Greek oddsmaking thinking that says more nominations equal high likelihood of a film winning Best Picture…I hate it!

And let me explain again for the 22nd time that Quentin Tarantino doesn’t make Best Picture nominees — he makes enjoyably clever wanks that operate entirely within the realm of his own intensely jaded, B-movie-relishing sensibility. They don’t reach out to viewers where they live — they invite viewers to step inside and take a ride on their machine but that’s as far as it goes. I’m a fan except when it came to Inglourious Basterds, which I almost hated because of that baseball-bat scene.