I’ve just been told of a Saturday morning box-office shocker as far as tracking data is concerned. Will Ferrell‘s Semi-Pro (New Line) is now looking like it’ll earn only about $15,184,000 for the weekend, according to a rival studio’s estimate. That’s over $25 million less than what Fantasy Moguls‘ Steve Mason predicted just yesterday.
This isn’t a typo — the basketball comedy did only $5,384,000 yesterday.
Semi-Pro was looking like a modest-to-decent opener last Tuesday until a big surge in tracking data two days ago, which led Mason to predict a weekend tally of $40 million-plus.
Is this the biggest tracking wrongo of all time? Something was clearly wrong with the methodology. (Too small a sample?) This is worse than the polling numbers for the New Hampshire and California primaries. Mason has egg on his face and some explaining to do.
Vantage Point is #2 with $11,954,000…off 48% from last weekend. (That’s all? For a movie as bad as thsi one? Another indicator of American taste buds.) The Spiderwick Chronicles will come in third with $8,438,000. The Other Boleyn Girl is in fourth place with 8115 (only 1100 theatres, almost $7000 a print, not bad). Jumper will come in fifth with roughly $7,288,000.
Step Up will be sixth with $5,372,000. Fool’s Gold is seventh with $4,452,000. No Country for Old Men benefitted from the Best Picture win with $4,003,000 and an eighth-place finish. Juno wil be ninth with $3,515,000, and Penelope will come in tenth with $3,197,000 — a disaster.