As Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson noted yesterday, the 2020 Independent Spirit Awards “are really indie” this year. Translation: Joe and Jane Popcorn tend to pay scant attention to the day-before-the-Oscars Spirit Awards, but this year they’re really not going to care all that much.

As usual, Hollywood Elsewhere will be attending the Santa Monica Surfside Show under the Big White Tent, but my enthusiasm will be mitigated by the fact that the only Spirit Award nominee that really and truly knocked me out was A24 and Robert EggersThe Lighthouse (and particularly Jarin Blaschke‘s black and white cinematography).

I’m also a serious fan of two other A24 nominees, Waves and The Farewell. And of course of Marriage Story, which will likely win the Best Picture trophy.

I also feel mixed about attending an event that will have a high percentage of Khmer Rouge wokester militants, as well as (I’m presuming) a fair amount of Pete Buttigieg dissers. But you have to try and get along or at least, you know, sidestep potential conflicts.

Here are some of Thompson’s predictions along with occasional HE comments:

BEST PICTURE / Will Win: Marriage Story / Spoiler: Uncut Gems / HE comment: Which of these two films is likely to linger more in the memory 10 or 20 years hence? Obviously Uncut Gems, despite the fact that it’s a deeply infuriating film to sit through, Adam Sandler‘s admirable performance aside.

BEST DIRECTOR / Will Win: Josh and Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems) / Spoiler: Alma Har’el (Honey Boy) / HE comment: The Safdies are frenzy junkies, fools for velocity, and definitely not that deep. Average popcorn inhalers felt the same about Uncut Gems as I did — it was a grueling endurance test. And I saw it twice. When a certain party got plugged at the very end, I said to myself “thank God.” Sandler’s performance was better than the film.

BEST MALE LEAD / Will Win: Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) / Spoiler: Robert Pattinson (aka “RBatz”) (The Lighthouse) / HE comment: Agreed and approved.

BEST FEMALE LEAD / Will Win: Renée Zellweger (Judy) / Spoiler: Alfre Woodard (Clemency) / HE comment: Agreed and approved.

BEST SUPPORTING MALE / Will Win: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) / Spoiler: Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) / HE comment: Dafoe‘s salty dog bluster is brilliant. One of my absolute favorite19 performances.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE / Will Win: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) / HE comment: Those in the indie community who felt that Lopez’s failure to lasso an Oscar nomination was an unfair shafting will stand behind her today. My opinion is that her Hustlers performance was definitely decent but calm down.