Last night a kindly-mannered, liberal-minded friend was talking, God help us, about a possible Romney win. Too many voters don’t know about the economy steadily resurging, and those who know about it don’t think it’s enough. They want to be rich, and believe if Romney wins his tremendous wealth might somehow rub off on them. They refuse to accept that Bush trickle-down and regulatory leniency, which Romney wants to return to, are what led to the economic crash of ’08. They’re determined to vote against their interests, and are clinging like shipwreck survivors to pig-ignorant suspicions and intuitions. **

In short, the fate of the nation is in the hands of a few million spoiled, drunken, sugar-addicted four-year-olds who like to gamble.

On 6.7.12 I wrote that “I’ve been predicting all along that President Barack Obama will squeak through to a victory over Mittens Romney, nudging him by two or three points at best and more or less surviving by the grace of God. If he does any better it’ll be because something will drop into his lap that will make him look better to Joe Schmoe, who always votes like a grunting superstitious dumbass.”

You can’t go wrong with N.Y. TimesFive Thirty Eight” columnist Nate Silver, a brilliant statistician and poll-crunching dweeb who more or less agrees that my early-summer pronouncement is still valid. Yesterday morning he posted the following:

“If you accept the premise that Mr. Obama is ahead by some (small) margin in the tipping-point states, something that all the different methods agree on, it then becomes a question of how much doubt you should have about that advantage given the intrinsic uncertainty in polling.

“Saying that the race ‘could go either way’ is an obviously correct statement — but also one devoid of insight.

“We dare to pose a more difficult question, the one that a gambler or an investor might naturally ask: What are the odds?

“We calculate Mr. Obama’s odds as being about two chances out of three.”

** A Gallup poll released last June stated that only 47% of Americans seem to believe in evolution while 46% believe in creationism (i.e., Adam and Eve). Of the 47% backing evolution, 32% believe that God guided it. 58% of Republicans believe that humans were created within the past 10,000 years.