Tom O’Neil‘s brand-new version of is up, live and running, and containing a new poll of likely Oscar winners from 11 pundits (including yours truly). But disagreement exists between the “Oscar experts” and site’s editors (i.e., O’Neil and four other guys) about the most likely Best Picture winner.

The pundits are saying that The Social Network will win but O’Neil & Co. are saying no — it’ll be The King’s Speech. This is war!

But for me the biggest puzzle lies in the Best Supporting Actress category. Most of the pundits have picked The Fighter‘s Melissa Leo to win even though no one has seen David O. Russell‘s film. (The first Manhattan screening is happening on Thursday, Nov. 11th.) They’ve also picked Helena Bonham Carter performance in The Kings Speech as the second most likely to win, and she’s only pretty good, trust me — there’s nothing in her performance to make anyone swoon or drop to their knees. She does a fine, sturdy job but that’s all.

And then comes Rabbit Hole‘s Dianne Weist in third place and Made in Dagenham‘s Miranda Richardson in fourth — and again, neither performance is really all that stupendous. The only performance that’s really and truly award-worthy is Jacki Weaver‘s crocodile-smile grandmother in Animal Kingdom.

And relatively few have gotten behind Rosamund Pike, who gives the best performance by far in both Made in Dagenham and Barney’s Version. What’s that about, pundits? And as long as we’re voting for performances we haven’t seen, what about Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit? And what two that we have seen — i.e., Barbara Hershey in Black Swan and Sissy Spacek in Get Low?