The biggest flop of the summer? I liked Poseidon and all, but financial prospects for this Warner Bros. release (5.12) are not good. It cost $160 million to make. To be regarded as a seriously performing hit, a movie of this sort needs to bring in $35 or $40 million on opening weekend. Right now, 10 days from opening day, tracking indicates perhaps a $15 million opening weekend at best. Having decided against a nationwide sneak last weekend, Warner Bros. is now trying to jack up interest with big ad buys. A 90-second trailer ran last night on NBC’s Deal or No Deal, which is “very unusual”, a marketing guy tells me. (Most TV spots for upcoming films run 15 to 30 seconds). Poseidon is a bracingly good disaster film as far as it goes, but interest levels are low. If it triples its opening weekend earnings Poseidon may end up with something like $45 million domestically. Obviously foreign, home video and cable will add to this, but that’s still a fairly sucky number for a big movie like this. It should ideally earn at least $150 million domestically, and it may not even do a third of that.