The two suffering angels of the Best Actress race are Blonde‘s Ana de Armas and Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler. Both are based on real-life figures who lived 60-plus years ago — AdA’s Marilyn Monroe and Deadwyler’s Mamie Till.
It seems highly likely that both will be nominated but who knows? Perhaps voters will conclude that one suffering angel is enough.
Many dislike Blonde but everyone admires Ana de Armas’ lead performance — nobody’s blaming her for what they don’t like about Andrew Dominik‘s film. Methinks that many Academy members of color will vote to nominate Deadwyler as well as Michelle Yeoh, the likely Best Actress nominee from Everything Everywhere All At Once.
I can’t gauge who gives the most emotionally live-wire performance between them, but ethnic voters will probably regard them in a similar light (yay, team).
Who are the most likely contenders outside of these two or three? I’m presuming it’ll be The Fablemans‘ Michelle Williams, Cate Blanchett‘s Lydia Tar in Todd Field‘s TAR and Empire of Light‘s Olivia Colman.
That means, if I’m correct, that the following performances are looking at an uphill situation: The Woman King‘s Viola Davis, Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, She Said‘s Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan, Good Luck To You, Leo Grande‘s Emma Thompson, The Wonder‘s Florence Pugh.
In sum, the six hottest contenders are Danielle Deadwater, Ana de Armas, Michelle Yeoh, Michelle Williams, Cate Blanchett and Olivia Colman.
HE faves, in this order: Cate Blanchett, Olivia Colman, Danielle Deadwyler, Ana de Armas, Michelle Yeoh. I haven’t seen The Fablemans.