Leonardo DiCaprio is on top because (a) he’s been humping it in features for 22 years (since This Boy’s Life) and is arguably more “due” than Julianne Moore was before she won last year, (b) because he should’ve won that bitch trophy for The Wolf of Wall Street, and (c) because it is believed in certain quarters that The Revenant is the best AAA art film he’s ever been part of. Johnny Depp is ranked second because of the wig and the husky eyes, but he probably won’t last because Scott Cooper‘s film, as good as it is, doesn’t really break fresh ground. Eddie Redmayne is next for giving 110% to a role that demanded nothing less, and yet his Danish Girl performance feels one-note. (Not Redmayne’s fault but the writing.) You know what else feels a little one-notey? Michael Fassbender‘s lead performance in Steve Jobs. But the relentlessness does leave a strong impression. I was telling myself that Michael Keaton or Mark Ruffalo should be nominated for Spotlight, but I don’t see how you can call either of their performances leads. I put in John Cusack for Love & Mercy because Paul Dano‘s performance will, I’ve been told, be campaigned as a supporting thing — smart move. Geza Rohrig‘s barely verbal performance in Son of Saul is the most harrowing I’ve seen this year from anyone. Michael Caine delivers the goods in Youth, but his best shot is to use the gold-watch, end-of-career tribute pitch. Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo…maybe. (Tip of the hat to HE’s Sean Jacobs for Photoshopping the chart.)