For the 47th (or is it the 48th?) time the three greatest films of 2017 are Luca Guadgnino‘s Call Me By Your Name, Chris Nolan‘s Dunkirk and Greta Gerwig‘s Lady Bird. Why then are so many predicting that Nolan and possibly Gerwig will be nominated tomorrow by the Directors Guild of America, but aren’t even allowing that Guadagnino is a possibility?

I get the Guillermo del Toro and Martin McDonaugh noms as their films, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, have become across-the-board soft defaults, but…wait, Get Out‘s Jordan Peele is among the likelies? Did somebody put something in the water? Is the seed-pod situation I described yesterday worse than I realized?

The DGA has added a “first-time director” category, and this is where Peele belongs, at best. Peele barely pulled his film together from a script that he himself wasn’t entirely sure belonged in the horror or comedy realm, an uncertainty that lingered even during post-production. Get Out obviously came together and made a lot of money, okay, but Peele deserves a DGA nom more than Luca Guadagnino?

Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone is predicting the following five DGA noms as of this time tomorrow: McDonagh, del Toro, Nolan, Peele and Gerwig. She’s saying the fifth slot “could” also go to Guadagnino or The Post‘s Steven Spielberg. She suspects that Guadagnino, along with The Florida Project‘s Sean Baker and Phantom Thread‘s Paul Thomas Anderson, may be a better bet for the Academy rather than DGA.