“‘It’s kind of a black comedy about despair, [but] I don’t think they’re going to put that on the poster.” — Martin McDonagh speaking about In Bruges (Focus, 2.8), which he wrote and directed, to N.Y. Times writer Sylviane Gold.

What is this strange Dave Karger belief in Atonement‘s shot at a Best Picture nomination? Isn’t it dead? Is there anyone who sincerely believes otherwise? And if they do, based on what? It’s a very sad and strong film that fell on deaf ears. It’s the light that failed. I knew it was in trouble when my ex-wife saw it last month and said she really didn’t like it. “Whaat?” I replied, more than a little startled. “But, but…”

In a sidebar called “Blogger’s Choice” in their 1.18.08 issue, Entertainment Weekly is running counterviews and tea-leaf readings from seven of “the film industry’s top bloggers,” including predictions about the 2.24 Oscar Awards broadcast. I’m the only one who is flat-out skeptical about the Oscars even happening. Everyone else — David Carr, Pete Hammond,. Tom O’Neil, David Poland, Sasha Stone and Anne Thompson — is predicting that a deal or a waiver will allow the show to broadcast.

I know this much: the AMPTP is sensing that WGA negotiators, who are regarded in some circles as erratic and inconsistent for making side deals here and there, is weakening because significant voices are bitching about their tactics and general leadership qualities, and the WGA guys know this. If the WGA grants a waiver for the Oscars they will be seen as flat-out pussies by the AMPTP hardballers, and the WGA guys know this. They need to either cut an overall deal by 2.10.08, or two weeks before the show (one week would be cutting it too close), or the strike will continue, the Oscars will get no special waiver and the WGA negotiators will have held on to a semblance of battlefield honor.
A 1.13 Toronto Star article by Peter Howell takes a somewhat more pessimistic view, or at least what you’d call a wait-and-see one.
“The Oscars are viewed as the ultimate example of the show that must go on,” Howell writes. “The Oscars have been delayed three times in the 80 years — by floods, by the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. and by the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan — but they have never been cancelled.
“The cancellation of the Golden Globes is a $75-million to $100-million blow to the L.A. economy, by one count, and the loss of the Oscars would surely dwarf that. What is apparent here, however, is that the awards shows are mere collateral damage in a bigger war for the future of movies and TV shows in the digital age. The old Hollywood of L.A.-based studios making films for bricks-and-mortar theatres is rapidly being replaced by international conglomerates making entertainment product for the iInternet, the iPod and the cellphone.
“As Variety gloomily put it recently: ‘Hollywood is a mere plaything of the international congloms, and Hollywood product represents a relatively minor sector of the product line.'”

I’d been thinking all along that Sylvester Stallone‘s Rambo (Lionsgate, 1.25) would be called Rambo IV, but the Lionsgate marketers obviously figured it’s been 19 years since the last one so who cares? The legend begins anew! When I look at the stills I can’t help but observe that, yes, Stallone seems in good shape, but being 60-something he’s naturally a little chunkier than he was 25 years ago in First Blood, the only truly decent Rambo film.

So I think of this film as Bulky Rambo or AARP Rambo or something along those lines. The calendar is the calendar, biology is biology….you can’t fight it.
Industry know-it-all to Lionsgate publicist: “So are you screening Rambo?” Lionsgate publicist: “”Oh, sure!” Industry know-it-all: “And when would that be?” Lionsgate publicist: “January 25th.” Industry know-it-all: “That’s the day it opens.” Lionsgate publicist: “Yes.” Industry know-it-all: “Is this what’s called a critics’ courtesy screening?” Lionsgate publicist: “Oh, we don’t like that term. It’s just a critics’ screening.” Industry know-it-all: “But [a Lionsgte executive] said it’s great. Why aren’t you letting critics review it on opening day?” Lionsgate publicist: “Well, it is great. We just don’t believe it’ll be celebrated by very many critics.”

Watch John Cooper‘s welcome-to-Sundance video piece on http://www.sundance.org/festival — it starts automatically when to go to the site. Nothing special, but a nice little primer for anyone who’s never been.,

By tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest, Juno — now at $71,250,000 (according to boxofficemojo) — will become Fox Searchlight’s highest grossing movie ever, surpassing the final domestic Sideways tally of $71,502,303 (according to the IMDB). You can check the numbers here also.

“What’s wrong with the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. can’t be fixed by making members sign waivers or by banning parties during balloting,” Sharon Waxman wrote two days ago in the Los Angeles Times.
“The group needs, finally, to open its membership to a far broader pool, to encourage membership of bona fide journalists and critics — maybe even domestic ones.
“With the timeout provided by the strike, NBC Universal president and chief executive Jeff Zucker can make this happen. He should fix the Golden Globes or take them off the air for good.” And forego the potential of raking on $20 million in ad revenue? Jeff Zucker didn’t get to be Jeff Zucker by thinking like a reformist.

Bill Maher said something noteworthy about the WGA strike on last night’s Real Time with Bill Maher: “We’re very narcissistic out here in Hollywood, and I don’t think [the WGA strike is] the most important issue. But writers are important to me. As Paul McCartney once said, I’d rather have a band [to play with] than a Rolls Royce, and I’d rather have my writers than a Rolls Royce. And for sure, corporations are taking over everything and strangling this country and strangling little men. We do need unions more than ever but…

“What I don’t love is an atmosphere that has taken over this town. An atmosphere of witch hunt and threats, and that’s coming from the union and I don’t like that. The analogy is this: liberals criticize the conduct of the Iraq War, whether that was the right move and what it’s led to, and the Bush administration tried to conflate that by saying if you [believe this] then you don’t support the troops. That was a lie then and a lie now.
“In the same way, when I question whether this was the right strike at the right time, and I question the leadership which has not been very consistent…it’s the same kind of deal. You have a situation where these guys, these writers have been led into a situation in which there is no exit strategy, and we may not win this war. So we’re not wrong to criticize it. This is still America.”