The likeliest Best Picture contenders of 2014 will, as usual, be made by respected people with strong resumes and, as usual, contain strong, socially resonant material that will probably push mainstream buttons. Particularly among over-25 women. Two of the likeliest will be directed by women, and four will primarily be about women. Plus a couple of dramedies, a crime drama, an epic Biblical drama, two World War II dramas, a more-or-less modern war drama and so on. In a word, varied. Nobody knows anything and I’m obviously just guessing at this stage, but here are the films I’m presuming will be among the final picks:

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s comedic Birdman (seen in a rough version by a friend last July and described as AGI’s “best, most humanistic work!”); 2. J.C. Chandor‘s A Most Violent Year (’80s-set, Sidney Lumet-ish Manhattan crime drama); 3. Ridley Scott‘s Exodus (Ridley Scott/Kingdom of Heaven treatment given to Biblical tale of Moses, Egyptians and Hebrew slaves); 4. Angelina Jolie‘s Unbroken (World War II survival saga, All Is Lost/Life of Pi + Japanese prison camp); 5. Jean Marc Vallee‘s Wild (makeup-free Reese Witherspoon discovering herself and the American character on a long-distance hike); 6. Saul Dibbs‘ Suite Francaise (married rural-residing French woman has affair with German solder during World War II); 7. Michel Hazanavicius‘ The Search (remake of Fred Zinneman‘s same-titled 1948 film, relationship between a woman and a young boy in war-torn Chechnya, Berenice Bejo and Annette Bening costarring); 8. Jason Reitman‘s Men, Women & Chidren (ensemble social-sexual dramedy with Adam Sandler, Jennifer Garner, Judy Greer, et. al.) ; 9. Sarah Gavron‘s Suffragette (British-set, turn-of-the-century drama about female voting-rights struggle, script by The Queen‘s Abi Morgan, costarring Carey Mulligan, Helena Bonham Carter and Meryl Streep).

I’ve read two South by Southwest reviews of Jon Favreau‘s Chef (one by Indiewire‘s Eric Kohn, another by Variety‘s Joe Leydon) and the general response is that Favreau has made a likable, agreeable, indie-styled dramedy. My problem is that I’m reluctant to settle into a film about an overweight chef. We all love to nibble down on tasty dishes but we don’t want to pay the price. Nobody does. Only teens and 20somethings can get away with eating like a pig, and sometimes not even them. I’m sorry but the metaphor of Favreau’s girth (he wasn’t in one of his slim-down modes when he shot the film and he still isn’t, to go by recent photos) speaks for itself. I don’t ever want to go there, and so I don’t feel that keen about seeing Chef. (Although I’ll see it for sure.) If Favreau was slim and trim I’d feel a whole different way. Sorry but that’s what it boils down to. Well, that and the reviews.

I seem to recall Glenn Kenny and Steven Gaydos taking issue with a statement in my initial Grand Budapest Hotel review that it feels “like Ernst Lubiitsch back from the dead.” In fact they sneered, pooh-poohed and put that comparison down but good. Now along comes Salon‘s Andrew O’Hehir describing Anderson’s latest as a “frothy Ernst Lubitsch-styled comedy.” This doesn’t mean that Kenny and Gaydos are dead wrong, but their harumphy dismissals of the Lubitsch connection have now been called into greater question. I’m not saying Kenny and Gaydos are running for tall grass, but they have to be thinking about that. Especially with Anderson having said the other night at the Aero was Lubitsch was an influence.

In a “Premature 2015 Best Picture Oscar Predictions” piece, Indiewire‘s Oliver Lyttleton has listed Carey Fukunaga‘s Beasts of No Nation as a highly likely Best Picture contender if it had any chance of being released this year. Except this seems unlikely as the film, an adaptation of Uzodinma Iweala‘s violent Africa-set novel, will only begin filming later this month. Lyttleton is all woo-woo because Fukunaga directed all eight episodes of HBO’s True Detective and he’s figuring the director of the masterful Sin Nombre is on a roll.

Lyttleton acknowledges that Beasts contains “material that threatens to be difficult to watch, but prognosticators worrying about that sort of thing have been proven wrong more than once of late (nominations for Amour and 12 Years A Slave winning), and a supporting role for Idris Elba should help bring in some eyes, plus this year’s race (so far) is rather lacking in ‘important fare.'”