N.Y. Times political pulse-taker and numbers guy Nate Silver is reporting that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is on the outs with the wacked-out Republican right (i.e., the party of corporate elites, angry old white guys and Tea Party yokels) due to his being perceived as too moderate.

That right there tells you he has a better-than-decent shot at becoming the 2016 Republican candidate for president because — hello? — he could actually win. He’s a real-deal, hot-dog-eating man of the people and not a country-club phony like Mitt Romney.

But the metaphor that goes along with being dangerously obese means he can’t run if he doesn’t drop at least 100 pounds, or better yet 125. A little more than a year ago The New Republic‘s Timothy Noah offered a “crowd-sourced” estimate that Christie weighs around 334 pounds, give or take.