There are currently 28 Gold Derby “experts” making Oscar-race predictions or, if you will, “spitballing” the outcome. I am one of them, and right now the Best Picture race is owned by The Irishman — 14 out of 28 are confident that Martin Scorsese‘s gangster epic will take the Big Prize.

Quentin Tarantino‘s Once Upon A Time in Hollywood is second with 8 experts predicting it’ll win. Noah Baumbach‘s Marriage Story is in third place with four Best Picture upvotes, and Greta Gerwig‘s Little Women is in fourth place with two experts standing behind it.

The Oscar apple cart could be totally upset or re-oriented when Sam Mendes1917 and Clint Eastwood‘s Richard Jewell screen later this month, but for now I’m eyeballing a second Best Picture trophy for Marty. Disputes? Doubts?